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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Agenda who wrote (6084)	3/20/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: Northernliving	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 10479

I've lurked this board and others for over a year now, and I'd have to say, I'm amazed at the conviction that some have to bury this company. I have appreciated the objective analysis that some folks have provided. I recently asked my investment advisor about FIBR; the pros and cons, and some of the risks associated with this stock. With his permission, here are his comments below. Brian ---------------------- Before I provide input on FIBR, I will say that it obviously is a BIG risk. If we are wrong about this one and the new products do not pan out then the company is going to be barely alive. And there is no doubt that there are people out there that adamantly claim we're wrong on FIBR. I believe the biggest knock on FIBR is the past record of this company. FIBR was an unsuccessful PC company for many years and then spent between late 1993 - 1996 assembling small usually UNprofitable networking companies with specific technical expertise into the company it is today. I don't think it is really fair to attack management as "inept" based on not earning a significant profit for the past 10 years because: 1) It was a small PC company (around $5 million in annual sales) for many years with no hope of competing with CPQ, DELL, etc. Basically, it appears to have been a good learning experience for the Chadhas (husband and wife) and one thing they learned is that the PC biz was the wrong biz. You need size in that biz. 2) From 1993-1996, they assembled a networking company that would have specfic technical skills that would allow them to develop new products for the emerging technologies in the internet/wireless area. The technical development started over 1 year ago and they targeted 3 major areas with the Big 3: Gigamux, NET+Arm, and IQX-200. They had hoped that the existing products would be profitable and would help fund this expansion. That hasn't occurred for a variety of reasons, but I'm not sure management ineptitude is one of them. The networking industry turned down last year and older product lines can disappear quickly in this industry. To answer a few of your specific questions: Q. Is FIBR a scam? A. In a way, I wish it were. I've seen plenty of scam companies and the stocks of those companies usually get hyped to the moon before they deflate. FIBR stock is not selling at a hyped price. $90 million for a company with $120 million in sales and 3 new networking products with explosive potential is absurdly cheap in comparison to other technology companies. By comparison, my long-time favorite scam stock has been developing a "breakthrough product" for the flat panel display industry for over 10 years. They have never had any real sales or had a profit. The stock was a big winner for many years and was almost worth $600 million a few years ago. It had a bad year in 1997 and is now worth only $200 million - over 2 times the value of FIBR! Q. Is FIBR hyped? A. I don't think so. Management genuinely believed sales of the older product line would grow and be profitable last year. This did not happen (industry slowdown, consolidation of the company, and some management miscalculation), but it does not mean we were purposely misled. Par Chadha bought 1 million shares around $10 per share over 1 year ago - pretty good evidence he believed good things were in store. Management obviously remains very optimistic about the future of FIBR. You wouldn't know it from the last conference call though - I felt management somewhat downplayed (UNDERhyped) expectations. Obviously with the NASDAQ listing in question, they are being careful and waiting for the sales results (3-9 months away) to do their talking. Q. Isn't FIBR just another in a long list of Witz/Chadha scam companies? A. The Barry Witz connection is of some concern. If you read the Barrons article it appears that Chadha was brought in to manage two different Witz companies before embarking to remake FIBR into a networking company. Perhaps he learned that a high stock price can be used very effectively to raise capital. Perhaps FIBR was hyped and WAS a scam back when it hit nearly $20 per share in 1996. That high stock price was what allowed FIBR to acquire all those small networking companies with no money. While the 1996 run in the stock does raise some questions, the CURRENT market value is not a scam. The current stock value is undervalued relative to the company assets and product set. Q. Isn't FIBR just a share generation and dilution machine? A. The share dilution of the past year was mostly related to preferred stock (and the like), that was used in the acquisitions, now being converted to common stock. Also, and this is a valid concern, since the company is low on cash they use stock to pay certain expenses (like the CEOs salary). That does tend to understate expenses and overstate profit, but it can be smart business at times and is somewhat necessary at the moment until the new products kick in. Q. Aren't the new products just another scam and "false hope" from the company? A. First of all, as stated above, I don't see much, if any evidence of past scams from the company. However, this is the key question: Are these new products going to be significant revenue producers? Judging from the customers and distributors that this company has, there are undeniably some worthwhile products being sold. Judging from the magazine articles, industry reports, customer acceptances, and some anecdotal evidence, the new products have tremendous potential. Based on comments from the respected "outside" Directors on the FIBR Board, this company has "turned the corner." Based on insider buying, the people that know the company better than I do think these products are going to sell. I don't know everything about this company, but in my opinion the evidence is awfully strong that these new products are going to be winners...and at a mere $90 million stock value, that gives this stock huge potential.

To: Agenda who wrote (6084)	3/20/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: tbonenyc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

<<I KNOW FIBR is a scam.>> Well, from what i've been able to surmise, it is YOU that is the scam.