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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (21310)	3/21/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: tman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

By Eric J. Savitz Novell lives. For some people, that may be hard to believe. After all, Novell has been through a hellish stretch of product delays, inventory woes, disastrous acquisitions, deep job cuts and a nearly complete overhaul of top management. Many on Wall Street now view the company as just one more victim of the Redmond juggernaut, expecting to see Novell's flagship NetWare network operating system software steamrolled by Microsoft's Windows NT. Certainly, you'd be hard pressed to find a company with an uglier stock chart -- Novell shares have been losing value almost continuously for five straight years, having retreated steadily from $35 in 1993 to under $7 earlier this year. Novell's chart has the look of a stock headed for oblivion. Or maybe not. For at long last, Novell shows signs of life. The first step in the turnaround really came 11 months ago, when it named former Sun Microsystems technology chief Eric Schmidt to succeed Ray Noorda as CEO. After a year of serious repairs, Novell now appears to be inching forward again, and the Street has slowly begun to take notice. Late last month, Novell reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter, ended January 31, earning four cents a share. It was Novell's first profit from operations since mid-1997. Bolstered by the encouraging news, investors have bid the stock back up to around $10. There could be considerably more where that came from. interactive.wsj.com

To: Don Earl who wrote (21310)	3/21/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: Elmo Gregory	Respond to of 42771

Hi Don - I don't know if I can take credit for the link or not, but thanks for reposting. It led me to revisit Computerworld and I found the new "Quick Study" section interesting and informative. computerworld.com Regards, Elmo P.S. The "Open Frame in New Window" feature of Netscape Communicator makes viewing the frames (full screen) much easier.

To: Don Earl who wrote (21310)	3/21/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Some TA stuff. cardinaltrading.com The link gives some fairly simple to understand explanations on reading charts and different indicators. I'm getting very strong mixed signals at this point and am kind of curious if anyone else that plays with TA has any opinions to offer. After spending who knows how many hours in the last two days reading charts, this is what I come up with. 1. Pennant pattern: pull down the SI chart, click to change to weekly numbers. The pennant was sticking out like a sore thumb up until yesterday. The move below 10.19 (first short term support level) messed up the shape but it's still kind of there. Bullish. 2. Support: 10 held but the selling pressure was fairly heavy all day. Couldn't quite figure out the large bid/ask sizes that didn't change for long periods in spite of a large numbers of trades that should have reduced inventory. Down on increasing volume is bearish. There is support again at 9.94 but I would consider that to be kind of weak if 10 breaks. 3. Descending triangle: Pull down the 100 day SI chart. The move to 10 makes a fairly strong argument for that interpretation. Bearish. 4. Topping pattern: (not discussed in the posted link) In a daily chart the volume forms a U shape and the price lows start to form an upside down U shape (on bottoms price and volume both form U shapes). The completed pattern leaves an O shape in the middle of the price and volume (on tops). This is one of my favorites as confirmation starts in the middle of the pattern, well ahead of major price moves. Normally a strong pattern and very bearish. Volume picking up on the downside yesterday would tend to be early confirmation but not rock solid. 5. Moving averages: The 12 day is starting to turn down sharply but longer term MAs are still trending up. Two ways to look at it: a) If it's going through a consolidation period the short term MA doesn't make much difference. b) The move from 7 to 11 was too fast and the longer term MAs aren't valid. 6. Stochastics: Still trending down (bearish) but starting to reach an over sold condition (bullish, almost). My conclusion at this point is that the price is on the verge of a full blown break out. The problem is I don't have a clue which direction. Any amateur and/or professional TA players care to take a look at the tea leafs and offer an opinion?