To: Gofer who wrote (155 ) 3/22/1998 4:42:00 PM From: Gunnar Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 486
Gofer! Your question is better than my answer: If this was not a third world area where until now the production has declined you could find: + Melters, ports, rail , roads in proportion to the enormous deposits in place. Only at the Tenke Fungurume there are about 500 000 000 t ore,and maybe, according to Lundin, the double after the coming drilling operations during the time of production. Look at this map, please: http//192.139.81.46/databas/fax/1997/1tnk1001.gif The so called Copper District of DRC/Zambia deserves a better output per year than for example that of Tenke, 100 000 tpa of a deposit that contains 5.000 more. At an output of 200 000 after 4 years the mine can be producing for 2 500 years to come! I don't think that is the way Adolf Lundin wants it. Even though he is getting older and surely wants to be remembered even by his grandchildren, I think that he will give this project to a CO that has the strength to fix all these facilities and give Lundin some money. For a major who can afford to wait the Tenke-Diepeta-Fungurume-Bumpi deposit is of tremendous value. The Cobolt gives the CO the copper for free. It is also possible to weight over to modern low-cost production for a major. "Copper has been the star of the base metals for a decade, with the LME cash copper price averaging $US1.09/lb between 1987-1996. This compares to average cash costs over the period of about US60›/lb. And these costs are falling."afr.com.au Lundin has to show the majors that it is possible to mine in this area. If he can show that,the price in situ will increase and Lundin leaves between CAD 8-10. Without any political risks he could get the double. I am not doing some logical reasoning here, my experience is to small for that. I see this as a short play for Lundin. Take a look at the thread that discusses the copper price ( Subject 19142 ). If they are right there will be a bear market for 2-3 years. How will this affect Lundins timetable ? I do not focus on cash-flow, but on the potential dito, the in situ value. Am I correct in doing so? Has Lundin got married to his first project? Regards Marten