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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Ronald Peter Hellendall who wrote (2748)	3/21/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: ncs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

The PE can be expected to be somewhat lower as the earnings for 1998 are forecasted (estimated) to be less 1997, hence it will not command a growth stock multiple. I think the PE ranged somewhere between 4 and 40 over the past five years, which gives credence to the notion that this is a volitile stock. My supposition that the stock may yet go farther down is due to its lack of current following with the funds managers. Few funds managers want this stock on their roster at the end of the quarter. I bought it in December at 17.875 and sold it a couple of weeks ago at 25 as I had a stop loss on it. I intend to buy some more in the near future, if it stays at these levels, once I can free up some cash. With the next upswing in the sector it will hit 50 or better, IMO. The next upswing is scheduled to take place once the Asian crisis is resolved. But I think that will get worse before it gets better. Neil

To: Dr. Ronald Peter Hellendall who wrote (2748)	3/21/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: Donald L. Dominicci	Respond to of 5482

Ron My 1st comment is the comparison to gold is irrelevant. Now if you are looking for a high % gain and can afford a short term loss and sleep at night, KLIC is a good choice. I purchased my 1st KLIC in Jan. 96 on the day they announced record earnings and the stock dropped about $5.00. Every analyst had it either a buy or strong buy, it looked awesome. It had just dropped 50% since it hit $40 in 9/95,( 3months). It continued down to low below $10 in 10/96 and I kept buying more all the way down. That is a 76% drop from $40 to $10 in 13 months. Then it went on a tear up to $58 10/97, a 500% increase, in 1 year. I sold a portion near the top but have rode the rest down. I suggest you look @ a 5year chart to check the volatility, this stock is not for the weak of heart. I am maintaining my position because I know from experience when this train starts to roll you want to be on board, not in the station. It move very fast in both directions. Their new bonder line will produce higher margins in the future, However because the lead time on orders are so short it is hard to predict earning compared to rest of the eqpt. Group. As a result I think a P/E of 15 on future earnings is more than can be expected. Bottom line: this is a 1st class company with a dominant market share. Management is honest and forthright with a tendency to paint the worse possible picture, which some times hurts the stock. It has been my experience if they thought they had a chance of missing this qtr., they would have pre announced by now. One thing that I plan to do on the next run up is to use stop orders so as not to ride it back down during the next (inevitable) cycle. Good Luck Don

To: Dr. Ronald Peter Hellendall who wrote (2748)	3/21/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Bob L	Respond to of 5482

Ncs is right in analysis, I think, but maybe should have reminded us explicitly that the PE posted on Yahoo and most other places is a trailing indicator. Meaning, it is the ratio of current price to earnings during the previous 12 months. Since most investors apparently don't think KLIC will make as much during the next 12 months, they don't think the PE will stay so attactive. I don't care much for technical analysis, either. But a lot of people believe in it, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy to a certain extent.