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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3564)	3/21/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78594

Good morning Paul. It's Saturday morning and time to sit back and begin to philosophize. I ran into this earth-shattering discovery that makes me re-examine the very core of my soul. It turns out that the Beardstown Ladies have been lying to us! biz.yahoo.com If we can't trust these venerable septuagenarians whom can we trust? Regards, Paul

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3564)	3/22/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78594

I am interested in CYMI also. The problem is they told us a while ago that the current quarter would be lousy. The Street may choose to worry about that again as earnings time comes closer, and how much better or worse the next one will be. Therefore, I suspect it goes lower before it goes higher. I find semiconductor test equipment mfr LTXX interesting from a value point of view. Solid balance sheet, price about 30% above tangible book. The stock would have to rise over 130% (not 30%) to achieve the price/book or price/sales valuations of the average of peers KLAC, TER, and CMOS. Their recent quarterly release said the new Fusion product "has greatly improved our competitive position". They made $.02 for last quarter and converted some cash to inventory "for coming shipments of Fusion". It would not take too much of an increase in sales for the P/E to get to be pretty low and the valuation to rise toward its peer's levels. Price obviously reflects industry category weakness and skepticism based on their past record. State of Wisc owns quite a lot - they tend to be value investors. Gruntal is the Street firm with a strong buy - $.70 earnings for FY ending 7/31/99, with target of $11. I have started buying small amounts on an average-in basis. It appears to have many times larger upside than downside potential, which I have to see to buy a stock, and tough to find these days.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3564)	3/22/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: Count de Monie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78594

Dear Paul Senior, Great reply to the cymer challenge. You have my respect as someone who's knows how to evaluate a company. My strategy of waiting for $15 a share is as follows. Next quarter earnings will disappoint. I have until Fall to buy in before earnings pick up. It reach $15 just a few weeks ago. Asian crisis is not over. The Dow is too high. First quarter earnings will be bad for semi (INTC, MOT,Compaq). My point is the probability of getting in at a lesser price later is pretty good. The difference between $15 and $20 is 25 percent, quite significant. If things don't work out I can put my money in other stocks. My strategy has worked for 3 years so far. I play the probability game. You don't think timing can be done? I say never put your money in unless your sure. If in 4 months I can't buy Cymer for $15-$16 I will admit on this thread your right about timing. I know one sample is not statistically significant, but I believe I have a better chance of being right than you :) Count de Monie

To: Paul Senior who wrote (3564)	3/24/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78594

Many ways to skin the cat. Buy 100 shares at 20, sell Nov 17.5 put and November 22.5 call for about 5.5. If you own 200 shares in Nov(stock below 17.5) your cost of 200 shares is 16((20+17.5-5.5)/2) and if stock takes off you make 55% in 8 months. However I am with the Count, the downside risk is very great. If the stock breaks below 15 the buy stock,sell put,sell call strategy would be very attractive. Look at IECE, the darling of IBD, now at a new low because of customer problems.