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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2259)3/23/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Demosthenes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3696
 
Justa and all,

The trading range has been tight lately and it seems to me the stock is making a great base. I think the upside potential is much greater than the downside, so I'm happy being long. What is really going through the minds of the shorts?, who as we know do their homework. Is there a short term downside risk we are not considering. I would also love to know what biases these long Fidelity managers have. The short term battle could be won by the right press release or a strong earnings warning. I'm patient, but I wish I knew something else, just like the rest of you.

And, among the great short squeezes of this decade where would UTEK fit in if we saw it break out to the upside? Are the shorts really biting their nails?, or is it possible they are happy to wait just as we are? I have been buying since 10/96 and have a CB in the low 20's. Good God, UTEK was in the mid 40's at one time. I keep telling myself that current prices are a classic example of an inefficient market, but with shorts hanging in there it will be fight to the finish.

Justa, was that you who mentioned UTEK may have an agreement with a DD maker to supply them with their pole trimming technology in some kind of a preferential contract? Is this still believed to be true? With First Call at .15 for UTEK 1st qtr, what are current guess's among the rest of you on this thread.

I have been through this waiting game before in other semi's and have been richly rewarded. What's next for UTEK? Do the additions of significant stature to the Board of Directors mean anything to earnings or shipments for the first qtr?, or the second. I'm holding, but I'm ready to put UTEK on the block for a full scale re-evaluation.

Comments are appreciated.

Demosthenes



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2259)3/24/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3696
 
Justa: RE:<wonder if Vinik or other shorts are counting on a "dissapointment and a dump" by Fidelity >

Very interesting theory which could be correct, Justa. Having been a former Fidelity portfolio manager, Vinik may (probably does) know what triggers Fidelity's stock sell disciplines (e.g. number of quarterly earnings disappointments or EPS deceleration criteria). He may expect upcoming UTEK quarterly earnings releases will trigger a Fidelity sale of UTEK during this period of transition for the company. As a result, we (and Vinik) could get another buying opportunity (short cover opportunity). However, when 4th quarter 97 EPS was released in late January, UTEK's share price rose.

Moreover, Fidelity could abort their sell discipline if they believe (as most Longs do) that UTEK's new products division will result in large 1999 and later EPS growth . It's hard to believe that Fidelity would operate on a purely mechanical basis.

The reaction to next month's 98Q1 earnings release promises to be fascinating.

P



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2259)3/25/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3696
 
Justa: re:<More thoughts on Mr. Short>

As of March 15, UTEK outstanding shares short were 4,361,600 (a 2.1% decrease from those short at Feb 15. Average daily volume this month was 246,035 which equates to 17.7 days to cover. Last month's average daily volume was 384,332 which equated to 11.6 days to cover. It appears that the escape hatch for Mr. Short is shrinking rapidly. I ask you Mr. Short, is this game of chicken really worth it to you ?

P