To: Autumn Henry who wrote (37125 ) 3/22/1998 10:58:00 AM From: donald sew Respond to of 58727
Autumn, Yeah, it looks like 9000 is in the near future, but as you say what happens when we get there. I had called the top at DOW-8888, and SPX-1100 for the short-term prior to April expiration, but it appears that it can go further. Look at the NDX, on FEB 6 it closed at 1134 and yesterday it closed at 1169, only a 35 point difference while the DOW has climbed over 700 points in the same time frame. The NDX should not be discounted since it does contain the top 100 NAZ stocks like MSFT, INTC, CSCO etc. Just wondering how much smaller is the total market cap for the NDX compared to the market cap of the DOW 30. As I have indicated in the past, the key to the top of the market is the NDX. Just subjectively how much higher can the DOW and SPX go without the NDX. If the NDX starts to move up strongly, I think we are going to blast thru 9000, but at this time do not think that will be the case for the NDX; therefore the upside should be limited, but I have been saying that for awhile >>> gggggggggggg <<<< Barton BIGGS, late last week on CNBC, indicated that we should start to turn down at the 1100 mark on the SPX. Thats the same guy who was one of the first to strongly emphasize the Asian currency problem last year when the market was hot. As for if earnings does come out good, maybe that is already priced into the market, so when it does come out it may still pull back but not as much as if there were to bad news. I guess something like a runnup to earnings for an individual stock and the announcement is good, but it still falls. Its not a question of if there will be a pullback/topping out process, but when. If we were to continue this pace we would be around 12,000 on the DOW by the end of this year. I am now starting again my short positions with puts, and if we get to the 9000-9100 point my total position will be short, with PUTS, SHORT-SELLING STOCK, and SELLING CALLS. With PUTS, of course the risk is higher, but with actually SHORTS on individual stock - I may miss the top exactly, but I can hold it just as one can hold a LONG position. And the safest is with selling calls with no realized loss, just loss of potential(assuming one bought the stock at a lower price than it is now). Seeya