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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Byers who wrote (18052)	3/21/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Hi Steve, I think AMAT is at the mercy of market influences such as chip mfg's earnings announcements which will be coming out in 2-4 weeks. If the earnings/prospects are poor or marginal then the NAZ will suffer as will the technology sector, which will move AMAT with it. Same thing happened in '96. AMAT was ready but the industry wasn't prepared to expand capacity at that time and AMAT stock price tracked the industry down. It was one of the best opportunities for patient investors to get in at bargain prices in all the semi-mfg's. They waited a while but were well rewarded within 12-16 months, some with 4x their initial capital investment. The same scenario is forming again. Even if AMAT meets its target earnings it may not be favorably considered since it supports a questionable tech sector over the short haul. Before anyone jumps up and down on me, I want to make it clear that I am a long time investor and BULLISH on AMAT, long term. Short term, the market will determine the value of the company in this uncertain environment, regardless of our "logic/wishes". AMAT at $31 and below is a discount bargain if you can afford to wait and tie up your investment capital for a while. Just my opinion, BB

To: Steve Byers who wrote (18052)	3/21/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Steve, FYI, chart2.bigcharts.com iqc.com IMO, it appears that each time the 10 day and 20 day moving averages get close to converging, but don't actually cross, there is about a 10%+ decrease in stock price. The "trend" appears to be ready to occur again. The lines have come close to converging and are starting to run parallel since the stock price has been trading in a fairly tight range over the last several days. Volumes are rediculously low which says the stock is heading lower very soon, as there is nothing on the horizon to compel anyone to buy in quantitiy except for the day traders. I view this as a bearish sign and am expecting a decrease in price from this level. Of course some positive news release from AMAT could reverse this "trend" for a short while. Any TA's care to give their opinion/read of the charts?? Just my opinion, BB