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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockMan who wrote (13018)	3/21/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Under the Cisco watch (Cisco being a "leader" ) -- The networking industry has slowed from 1996 to 1997 and correspondingly Cisco's growth has slowed. There was a post here a few weeks ago, which showed the % figures how Cisco's growth has slowed. When an industry slows down, all companies in that industry should correlate as far as percentage in growth. The beauty of Cisco is that it continues to grow faster than the industry. If Cisco tried to be an industry innovater, that would make them more susceptible to becoming another IBM of the 80's. It is a known fact that it is much harder for large companies to be the most innovative because they can't move as quick as other, smaller companies. So, Cisco lets these smaller companies be innovative, then Cisco builds on these. So, if you ask me, Cisco is doing just what you say you wish would happen. -- When the internet is booming, the network industry is slowing. Very poor argument. There is only so much infrastructure that can be built for the internet. Once this infrastructure is built, upgrades to new, faster technology is what is sold. Obviously this is less lucrative than selling the equipment to build the infrastructure. But the demand for bandwitdth is growing at tremendous rates, regardless of what you think. Cisco is growing at phenomenal rates for a company of its size, and I don't expect this to change any time soon!! CSCO long, JRH

To: StockMan who wrote (13018)	3/22/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Jamuck	Respond to of 77400

"...bandwidth bottleneck." What plays do you like in the solution to the bottleneck problem? new infrastructure [qwst, etc.] or conversion of existing potentials [lu,cien, etc.] or both? Please explain. Where does CSCO come down in this arena? Just a wood butcher

To: StockMan who wrote (13018)	3/22/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

if Cisco actively dissuades customers from adopting new solutions, it is slowing the industry down. (One of the reasons for the lack of demand in PC's is the bandwidth bottleneck). Well, you've yet to tell me how Cisco actively does this. Cisco has taken a position of developing and delivering standard based products...perhaps due to it's large installed base and perhaps due to Cisco's size. However, I fail to see how this limits adoption of new technology. You're blaming Cisco for customers not wanting to purchase non-standard product? Perhaps the customers don't want non-standard product. If Cisco released major product lines prior to standardization they'd have to go out and update each of these customers (probably at cisco's cost) to the standard when it was ratified. Due to Cisco's huge installed base this could be cost prohibitive. It's not so cost prohibitive for smaller companies and in fact this is the only way they could compete. Under the Cisco watch (Cisco being a "leader" ) -- The networking industry has slowed from 1996 to 1997 and correspondingly Cisco's growth has slowed. There was a post here a few weeks ago, which showed the % figures how Cisco's growth has slowed. -- When the internet is booming, the network industry is slowing. The internet IS a network, so I'm not sure what you're saying here. Besides, show me your data. In fact ISP's are losing money big time and RBOC's and IXC's and other bypass providers are growing their netowrks - faster than you may think. There was a time last summer when many of the RBOC's took a "breather". However, this was a short lived breather.... Networking stocks will do well during 2H 98 and Cisco will lead them. Cisco's growth rate, as a percentage of their overall business ($6B in FY97, $8.?B in FY98) has slowed - true. Kind of expected given thier revenues. HOwever Cisco's growth rate is still better than other major competitors and Cisco continues to increase their market share in nearly every sector they target. Furthermore, you make a huge assumption - again - that RBOC's and IXC's etc. stop purchasing networking equipment because Cisco doesn't innovate. That's just ridiculous. However, carriers do want standards AND since there are multiple standards for technologies like xDSL, and Cable Modems, and standards are still being worked for other technologies like gig ether...well then, the carriers will wait for these NEW TECHNOLOGIES..but continue to buy proven ones. They've got too much on the line to do anything else but. Are you saying Cisco should walk in to a carrier with new kinky technology and risk the possibility of taking it on the chin? A bit of MKT 101 for you my good friend. As companies get bigger they have more at risk and the right thing for large companies to do is to get a touch more conservative. Given Cisco's size and what they have to risk they are quite innovative. Startups have nothing to lose...this is where innovation happens and Cisco realizes this, partners or funds these opportunities and then picks them up as they begin to succeed. Recent wins are Precept, and Ardent. These technologies will move Cisco into the multiservice age...and make no mistake Cisco is waaaay ahead of their competitors here. Another issue to consider is capital being spent on Y2K issues. This has been targeted as a reason for the modest slow down in networking expenditures. Cisco is doing more harm than good by being a "leader" <snicker> <snicker> Interesting opinion. But, Your Just Plain Wrong. Perhaps you should go back to trading silicon. ;) I try to be open, but your premise is writhe with opinion and unfounded statements. Gary