Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (13784)	3/22/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: pz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Chat market Ron, Excellent post full of years of wisdom. On another subject...oils should rally on Monday and trasportations probably down. Sunday March 22, 1:22 pm Eastern Time RPT-OPEC, non-OPEC plan output cut of 1.6-2.0 mbpd DUBAI, March 22 (Reuters) - Producers inside and outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are to cut between 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) and two million bpd of oil from world markets to restore prices, a joint statement issued by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico on the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said on Sunday. ''The three Ministers decided to undertake an effort together with the rest of OPEC members as well as non-OPEC producers to withdraw from the market an amount of 1.6 to two million barrels per day,'' the joint statement said. The statement was issued after oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico met in Riyadh on Saturday and Sunday. The statement said a commitment had been made by ''several producers'' to cut 1.1 million bpd and that discussions would continue on further reductions in coming days. Following that statement, Saudi Arabia said it had committed itself to cutting its own production by 300,000 bpd. ''Saudi Arabia has decided to reduce its oil supply by 300,000 barrels per day from its current level,'' a separate statement released by the Saudi Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said. Saudi Arabia currently produces around 8.7 million bpd.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (13784)	3/22/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Market comments. Ron, Many thanks for taking the time to post your comments on the market. I agree with everything you said although I would like to add a few things. As we all know, not all stocks go up in a bull market and not all stocks go down in a correction. While some of the Z's postions are out of favor at the present time, this could easily change in a heartbeat. Often, by the time you realize what sectors are in favor, it's too late to buy them because the stocks are already overvalued and money rotates into other sectors. Also, not all stocks in a sector will follow the trend of the sector. Some will outperform and some will underperform. We have given back part of our gains, but for the most part, I think we are holding stocks that will outperform the market averages. The exception is IOM which I will probably sell next week. I'm also concerned about DIGI, which is why I recommend that we keep our stop in. And while the semiconductors are out of favor right now, IRF and VLSI are trading at lower valuations than many stocks in the group and at a large discount to the industry average. Because of this, I think they might hold up better than stocks in the group that are trading at higher valuations. In the table below, I have compared the PE, growth rate, and PE/Growth rate for as many semiconductor stocks as I could find. While I don't normally trade based on fundamentals, this data gives me confidence to hold my position in VLSI and I have even decided to buy more if it declines to the lower daily bollinger band at 16. Company PE(1) Growth rate(2) PEG(3) ALSC 29.7 15 2.0 ALTR 27.1 30 0.9 AMAT 25.6 25 1.0 AMD NM 16 NM ASYT 13.2 27 0.5 ATML 13.9 20 0.7 CUBE 17.7 35 0.5 CY 48.3 17 2.8 CRUS 29.4 18 1.6 EGHT NM 40 NM ESST 19.2 17 1.1 IDTI 33.6 15 2.2 INTC 23.8 20 1.2 IRF 18.1 25 0.7 JBIL 18.8 30 0.6 LSI 20.6 20 1.0 LTXX 20.2 20 1.0 MU NM 15 NM NMGC 14.3 32 0.4 NSM 70.9 20 3.5 SMTC 16.5 25 0.6 SVGI 36.2 22 1.7 TXN 22.9 20 1.2 VLSI 18.3 22 0.8 VTSS 38.6 45 0.8 XICO 50.6 15 3.4 XLNX 28.4 26 1.1 Semi avg. 25.6 20 1.3 Notes: (1) Forward PE based on 1998 calendar year mean estimate (2) Based on analysts surveyed by First Call (3) Column 1 divided by column 2