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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (13785)	3/22/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Technical Analysis on the Z's positions AAC has rising daily support at 6 1/2, declining daily resistance at 7 5/8, and rising weekly support at 5 1/2. The narrowing of the bollinger bands is a classic indecision pattern that will eventually result in break out one way or the other. The on-balance-volume and money flow have been positive for the past few months indicating accumulation of the stock. Hold for now. DIGI is barely hanging onto support at 17 but I suspect it might break it next week. We have a sell stop in on our position at 16 3/4 and it almost got hit Friday (the low was 16 13/16). I think the downside risk is to 15 if it breaks 17, and that's a bit too much risk to warrant holding the stock for what is supposed to be a short term trade. I think we should keep the stop in and look for a new entry point if we get stopped out. IOM seems to be establishing a new base at 7 but the stock may not fit our criteria for a short term trade anymore because it will likely languish between 7 and 8 for a while. Even though it looks okay for the long term, holding broken stocks for the long term isn't consistent with the goals of the Z portfolio and I may take the loss next week. IRF has support at the lower daily bollinger band near 12. It touched that on Thursday, held, and then bounced on Friday. There is risk to 10 1/2 if it closes below 11 3/4. Hold for now with a target of 14. I agree with Ron on this one...take the loss if it breaks down. As reported earlier, LNET has a lot of support on both the daily and weekly charts at 10 1/2. The stock has been boring but I see no reason to sell it for that reason alone because there's no telling when it will move. The stock isn't broken like IOM; it just hasn't been moving. It made a nice move last week, probably because one of Lodgenet's directors bought 60,000 shares of stock on March 4 at 10 7/8. The filing reached Edgar on March 16 and the money flow has been positive every day since that. Resistance is at 11 3/4 and a move through that would set up a test of 12 1/2. PAUH didn't do much last week but it could have been due to options expiration. There were far more blocks on Friday than normal, most of which were buys at 10 1/4. I continue to like the stock because of the positive money flow, the above average volume on the last move through resistance, and the fact that retail stocks are in favor right now. The stock has been building new resistance on the daily chart at 10 5/8 but a move through that on decent volume would make a test of 12 1/2 to 14 likely. VLSI has support at the lower daily bollinger band at 16 and at the lower weekly bollinger band at 15 although it held 17 1/4 on Monday and Friday of last week. While I think the chances of the stock moving down to 16 are better now than last week, I'm planning to hold the Z's position and my own position even it breaks 17 because another point down just isn't enough risk to warrant selling the stock. The pivot point that I think will turn the short term trend around is 18 1/4. If the stock closes over that, I think a move to 19 1/2 is very likely. I have posted a lot of comments on this stock on the VLSI thread, so if you are interested in a more detailed analysis, please read that thread. Dan