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To: SDNA who wrote (22941)	3/22/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: Mike Gordon	Respond to of 97611

Which one of my post are your talking about. I'm somewhat confused. Mike

To: SDNA who wrote (22941)	3/22/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 97611

SDNA; <g> For the most part I was in a mischievous mood, and spoofing you.., I do tath from time to time, but only to personalities I like. I'm Long CPQ and at time not concerned about the bugs on the windshield. Unlike Mike I hold no defensive position, but I'm ready with dry powder to average down if and when I can see enough of an advantage to do so. My cost basis is at this time is mostly below the average longs ( as best as I can tell by reading back on this thread. ) Maybe why I'm mischievous. Best I can tell we got longs on SI who are holding, and waiting to buy but not many buyers..(my last buy was at 23-5/8) brought my average down to 25.75..she has to drop a liitle more if my next buy is to lower that average by any meaningfull amount. ------------------- Aware that most of the recent volume has been in short sales, one short covering his borrowed shares by buying borrowed shares from another who is selling borrowed shares. Most of the high volume being a tug of war between the shorts for position. I'm doing the best I can to guess at the amount short, ( as we don't get up to date data ) and it has to be extrapolated via the last data and keeping an eye on volume. Many people may argue with how I do this, and may want to critique me on it..but those types are to simple minded to understand it any way I might explain it. So I don't see any sense in getting into it. I have faith in it and that's what counts, as I'm good with numbers and extrapolating estimations. That basic talent comes from having been a navigator for many years and having to make allowances for wind and current. ---------------------- The course and plan I'm on now depends to some extent on my estimation of what the current short interest is. Things like the market cap based on the present stock price are adjusted via my estimation of short interest. As I allow for permutations in the market cap or real price via short interest. As the real market cap is X times the % of short interest.. My guess it's about 8% or so right now..so at 23-1/4 + X 8% puts her at about 25-1/8, (would not want to be short below that figure even if I was a bear )I'm not real happy being long above it , but I know I can average down below it in a heart beat and that the only way she is subject to go on down from here is for the shorts to jump into her harder..which if that does punch her price down..it will not drop her real market cap as fast..hence I want my next buy to drop me below what I precive taht real market cap to be to be at, when at that time I put the pedal to the metal. And if any one is reading this and disagrees, keep in mind I don't care and I'm aware it is conjecture on my part , and admitted conjecture is by it's nature non debatable. The one thing my model doesn't consider at this point is how many longs are on margins vs how many shorts are on margin. I have no way of getting even a guess at that, but institutions and funds have for the most part ready cash, with the only fund I found on margin being BEARX..and thats a short fund. -------------------- I tend to allow some room for error in extrapolating to arrive at an estimation..and my years at sea has ingrained in me to error on the side of safty..I'm not useing the "float" to arrive at my guess on the real market cap..but the total shares outstanding..which margins in another 2% , so from that point even if the short position is only 6% at this time I feel in good shape to swing in and pick up more of her prior to the short covering, whence I drop my average even more, and well below that of most investors. ------------------------- As with most stocks I buy..I like to buy well below the price the majority of the holders paid, and that I extrapolate from the data I get the best I can..I come up with about 30 to 32 ( conservatively ) so I know if I do take a hit there will be a lot of others who have to take a much harder hit than myself. My defensive posture was built in by waiting for her to dip before I made my first buy. I'm long and strong and with dry powder I feel I'm going to kick butt. And I'm not going to spend money going defensive, but I may write puts this coming week <G> -------------------- republic.net