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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (7232)	3/22/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

It looks like the small cap chart is demonstrating where some of these speculators are going. The small caps are IMO a good measure of the speculative exhuberance of the market which is a form of positive market sentiment. This is supported by the market ignoring continued earnings warnings. Note how long it took the speculative player to recognize that there are greener pastures to be found elsewhere with respect to the tech stocks even though the signs have been there for some time now and there has been evidence that even a non-technician should of been able to see. The speculator has been helping the institutions unload their tech holdings...generous bunch of people, aren't they? ;) I am always intrigued by how much the basic motivational forces of fear and greed play their part in the market. This is why market sentiment is so important to understand. The institutions definitely use this to their advantage as the "insiders" of the market by selling into the waiting and greedy hands of the speculator. So you know who has been purchasing the techs earlier when the institutions started their selloff? The speculator. That is where the speculator was in the market. Now the speculator appears to be in the more illiquid small caps which should provide them with the action they are used to seeing in the stocks they play. Now with further evidence that leadership in the tech sector is going through a prolonged death struggle, which can end up sometime in the future as another resurrection, perhaps this is a time for a market pullback. I would definitely look right now for evidence of a market pullback by looking at the "bigger picture" which includes market breadth measures, how the sectors that have been demonstrating good uptrends and leading the market rally look technically, key stocks and averages, to name a few places to look. Look for evidence of waning price momentum which is different from but related to the trend. How does the industry and specific stocks in the industry respond to market pullbacks and significant resistances that are hit? How does the market respond to good or bad news? For if there is nothing providing leadership in the market, the market is vulnerable to a setback. We are coming quickly up to 9000 which IMO will turn out to be a pyschologically significant event in how the market responds once 9000 DJIA is reached. Notice I said a "market pullback" and did not say that I expected a large "market correction" like some have predicted in the past (well over 10%) which they quickly amended to a smaller market correction (under 10%). Bob Graham

To: Chris who wrote (7232)	3/22/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

Continued thoughts on the market and its players: The best time to evaluate a technician and for that matter any market player is what they do when there are conflicting signs in the market like there were during the previous consolidation phase of the market that had mutiple false starts. When looking closely at how a technician evaluates this, do not subtract points if they adopt for a period of time a "wait and see" position since sometmes that is all a technician can do with the markets. However, they should at least be able to tell if a breakout attempt that appears to have turned into the beginning of a rally has strength to follow through even if that are not able to predict and judge the initial breakout itself, which can be much more difficult to do and prone to error in a volitile market. Another good time to get a read on a market player is by seeing how they respond to the sentiment of the market. Are they caught up in market sentiment where they ignore signs of an impending pullback or market correction? Or do they maintain a position independant of the current sentiment of the market? While the market is making new highs, if the market player responds with "fear" by taking short positions or moving their money out of the market before there is solid evidence there that would warrant such a position, they are still caught up in the market sentiment and their perspective has been compramised. Of course this is a judgement call. But then it may be worthwhile to see when and if they admit to their error and once again take the side of the trend. The biggest clue can come when this happens. If the person does admit to their error and now ends up ignoring significant indications of a market correction and gets caught in the market when the correction starts to happen, this market player is caught up in the sentiment of the market. Matter of fact, I would say this is further evidence that the market player had already been caught up in market sentiment back when they first pulled out of the market just to resume their trades. So when this happens, do not let them rationalize to you either action that they have taken. The reason I am going over this is that what I have described above IMO applies very well some of the highly visible traders that many follow here at SI. There is much more to succcess than a system even though a well designed and proven system when followed with discapline is an essential element to success. Going back to my definition of speculator, the trader who gets caught up in market sentiment either ignores their frame of reference or never did have an adequate and workable frame of reference in the first place that would help them monitor the market and know when to play and when not to play in the market. Anything that helps a trader to look objectively at the market and what it has to tell the trader is this "frame of reference". Looking at the "bigger picture" as discussed in this and previous posts helps. Also having a well-defined and well-proven system that is followed with discapline also helps provide a frame of reference. Experience in different kinds of makets over time helps too. Deciding when to trade and when not to trade is one of the most important choices a trader can make which is not a choice with many novice traders. After all, what they have been doing has worked for them in the past, right? So there is no reason for it to continue to work? Correct? Furthermore, this type of trader feels that since they can make money only by trading, they must always be trading in the market. But there may be times in the market it where the risk is much higher for the trader to follow their system and continue trading. They do not have any frame of reference to implicitly or explicity help them define this risk. The trader that does not have anything to provide them with this frame of reference or chooses not to follow their frame of reference is actually speculating in the market since some of the important risks of the market are invisible to them without the perspective that this frame of reference provides them. Such a speculator still can demonstrate success in the stock market and they can have come across something that is worth examining and making a note of for youself. Still I would not follow directly behind such traders and instead learn from what they can provide you as evaluated from your own perspective, experiences, and the understanding that you have developed for the market: your own "frame of reference". You need to make your own choices. But without a frame of reference to go by, how can one possibly make intelligent choices? And how can a trader know when not to follow those same choices in the future? This is important in a market that is always changing.

To: Chris who wrote (7232)	3/22/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Respond to of 42787

hey chris...in between finals and everything can you look at these stocks Message 3797453 btw RADAF is a big hit on Lizard's thread and several others out there If everyone is seeing it on TA...that means the buyers will come in...other than the buyers that would have been there as a normal course of events....

To: Chris who wrote (7232)	3/22/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Kenneth R Miller	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Chris... thanks for taking the time to explain T/A on DELL chart.. I'm still long DELL, but watching closely.. Best regards, Ken Miller

To: Chris who wrote (7232)	3/22/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Magnatizer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Thread here is doug list for the week. The stock selected here are generally good for 8% per week. Some are buy and hold, mostly the list consists of traders To: bdog (13660 ) From: Doug R Sunday, Mar 22 1998 12:09AM EST Reply # of 13702 Bugdog, (Bulldog?) (Bociferous dog?) aww, what the heck,.......Big, Not a chance. I have the list ready. It's about the same size as last week's. Here goes.... AATT will be on next week's watchlist. AAV: speculative...I think somebody bought 600,000 shares on 3/6. ACMM (is speculative due to volume but ...geez). ABN: I think recent news was already built into the price. ACRT (yup, really) ADTK ?? ADTN ADVS.....again ADX AE Heavy buying on all the dips over the last year. AILP.....again ALSC.....again AINN.....still AKRN seems to want to keep going ALI.....again ALR AMES AMHC AMWD ANTC.....again APSG.....again (a dip is likely first) Geez!!! I missed AQM. It almost made 3 previous lists. ARMF: speculative due to low volume ARNX ARTS.....again ARTT.....again ARX.....again ASE.....again (but one of the weaker on the list) ASFT ASI ASPT ASTE BEAS.....again BFIT.....again BID.....again BKLA (I know, I know) BOBJY (hi Jim) BRLI (about time, huh Dick J.?) CADE DBRSY.....again DIGL (yes, I have been watching it) DKWD.....again DVD.....again EQU.....again EXPO (formerly FAIL).....again FATS.....again FBA.....AGAIN GNET (hi Big) GNTX.....again GTAX anyone? GTY.....again HWYM LCCI LHSPF (ok, AMZN too) MCRE MGM (expectations hinted at by tons of insider buying now technically confirmed) MMGC MSON ONPT OXHP (Oh Ivan!) OSIP PTB SGI TACO TLK (finally) VII WBB Th th th...th th th...that's all folks!! Doug R Is this enough to keep you all busy, david