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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (15867)	3/22/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

OFF TOPIC __ AIRLINES I agree with you that the business model for the airlines has improved, and as long as the economy is humming, the % of empty seats should be very low. I'm not looking for the bubble to burst, just for some air to come out. I won't be shorting the open, but I will keep my eye on the sector for opportunities. I often like to short after upgrades or reiterations of "buy" since it often coincides with the big boys bailing. Let's see whether we get Salomon or Morgan to stand up for the airlines in the face of higher fuel prices.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (15867)	3/22/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Erwin	Respond to of 95453

Sam, <<Don't be so quick to short the airlines. Though fuel costs account for between 10 and 15% of total revenues, the airlines are doing a much better job of making money. Their computers are able to tell them exactly how much discounting is necessary to fill the plane. And they are not expanding capacity as quickly as previously. Just as lower fuel prices don't spell doom for the drillers or oil-service companies, neither does $15 oil spell doom for the airlines.>> I have no argument with anything you wrote. However it is a little too fundamental IMO. Perception drove the E & P down when oil dropped regardless the fundamentals that supported the stocks. In the same way perception can do the same for the airlines regardless the computer technology they use to max-out utilization. I think the concept of shorting the airlines is worth looking into and Monday morning might be a good time to go short. Erwin