To: LoLoLoLita who wrote (8667 ) 3/22/1998 7:43:00 PM From: Bill Harmond Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
>>AOL is hurting, trying to control costs so it can keep showing profitable quarters This is news to me. 550 million native page-views a day is one hell of an asset. >>NSCP is late to the party, and if it takes on debt to buy SEEK, they're going to have the same worries as AOL, but worse. I agree, but I don't understand what AOL's "worries" are. AOL has more cash than debt. MSFT is my pick for the Yoohoo? beater. I think you're on to something here, but I think Microsoft has gotten its wings clipped in the DOJ investigation. They are overhauling microsoft.com, and all those other things you say are true. Microsoft also has a direct investment in CMG Info Services, Lycos' parent. In order to get a competitive piece of advertising and commerce revenues Microsoft would have to spin up the breadth its web presence really quickly. Buying one of the secondary aggregators (Excite, Lycos, or Infoseek) would do the trick, but it would open Microsoft up to further DOJ scrutiny. Additionally, the mainstream media is threatened enough by Yahoo. They would be positively apoplectic over Microsoft. The mainstream press has plenty of clout in Washington (obviously far more than Netscape and rest of the software industry), and they would have the same desktop-monopoly-extention issues working for them as the DOJ's browser case does. If Microsoft announced such an acquisition, I imagine Yahoo would get hit for 20%, maybe a bit more, but I believe the decline would present a stupendous buying opportunity. Why? Because Yahoo is a technology-neutral player. Microsoft has a technology agenda, and they're not trusted by the community. Before you know it, certain pages on their sites could be "optimized" for IE, and their editorial content could be suspect. The DOJ is the big issue, though. Microsoft doesn't have the latitude it had even a year ago. Just some speculative thoughts.