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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (5338)	3/22/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Don, I think the first signal of the end of the bull market will be increasing crude oil prices. Inflation has been low for the past few years, but still positive even as crude prices decreased. Crude oil drives the cost in many industries. Inflation would have been much higher with flat oil prices. Given that inflation is already positive with declining oil prices, inflation will rise dramatically with an upturn in crude prices, even if crude only rises back to $20. Rising inflation will bring rising interest rates, and that will be enough to kill even this bull market. When will crude oil start backup? Soon I think.