To: Goodboy who wrote (3001 ) 3/22/1998 6:01:00 PM From: Goodboy Read Replies (1) | Respond to
I have been reading this thread for over 6 months now and following CCUR for longer than that. I am taking advantage of two things to post my thoughts. One is that I no longer work for an Investment Bank, which posting on a board like this is a big no no. Second I realized that SI was offering this trial membership. Here is what I know, followed by what I think. CCUR is in the process of quietly converting it self into a software company. Quietly because they have major customers who have and will spend millions on their hardware systems and they don't won't to abandon these customers (Boeing, Ford, etc}. Real time will at one point be a near software only business because as chips get faster, the benefits of the realtime hardware configuration will decline and more apps will need a standard or high end workstation/server running Realtime software (Wind River, CCUR and others). This will be a 2 or 3 year transition and will result in bigger market penetration and more profits via higher margins(successful software firms command much higher multiples, witness WIND). As for IVOD, a common misconception on this thread is that CCUR competitive advantage in price and performance is it's hardware. That is not really true. Their IVOD solution is based on their experience in Realtime software and is uniquely a software solution running on a real time cofiguration. Their systems use the Power PC chip, but their IVOD solution will run on a Pentium based server and can utilize off the shelf storage devices and other components. For the meantime, they will sell their solution as a hardware/software solution. But it may end up only software. ONCO denied CCUR had a contract with them on their earnings conference call. They said CCUR has a promising technology, but said CCUR jumped the gun and announcement by CCUR was premature. As has been disscussed, ONCO is still in a test. They verified the current installed systems being tested are Mitsubishi. This seemed negative at first, but it is not. Corky felt it was appropriate to give shareholders a glimpse of where they are and how close (he probably should have asked ONCO permission before including it in earnings release) they are to being selected and eventually receiving contracts. For the record, Mitsubishi's system uses multiple optical disks to provide their IVOD solution. They are selling ONCO on the premise that only a certain percentage of guests will access system at same time. Mitsubishi system is cost competitive only if more people don't use system or too many people don't want to see the same thing at the same time. CCUR is scalable to role with the punches if usage goes up and can add streams to a system at little cost. Mitsubishi, like others are offering IVOD solutions based on technologies they already have and then tailoring them to IVOD. Problem is (not for CCUR) the best technology to have and configure or adapt to IVOD is realtime systems and tech. That is why CCUR will be a big part of this game. The curve to catch them is steep (30 years of realtime system and software design) and would require most of these companies (Sun, SGI, HP, Tandem) to radically alter their platform and operating system (not so easy when you are running a pentium with NT or UNIX with SUN OS). CCUR had a small drop in R & D this past quarter. The reason is that 30 years of R & D provided this IVOD solution and it is now harvest time. $$$ will be best spent going forward in marketing, alliances, joint venture agreements, establishing new distribution agreements, partnering up to attack Intranet market (the biggest of all) making server operate with emerging standards being set by CABLELABS and Scientific Atlanta and continue to transform business to software to compete against Wind River or create new apps themselves. CCUR may even sell a piece of their realtime business that doesn't fit and bolster the balance sheet even further. Oh yes and the Year 2000. Check out their site and go into year 2000. CCUR and Harris have 30 years worth of product, much of it still out their operating that is not in year 2000 compliance. Those under service agreements (that biz generates almost half CCUR revenue) will recieve the Y2K fix for free, but there are many systems in use that no longer have a maintenence agreement with CCUR. This is a proprietary code and only CCUR has it. Over the next 18 months, these companies will come to CCUR and purchase the tested and effective software fix. This could mean millions in software revenue for the period, no B.S.. If management of CCUR were more the Silicon Valley types and this company was private coming public, no doubt it could IPO at 5 or 6 and then climb from their on hype and Analyst coverage with each new contract a catalyst to raise estimates and salivate over the future prospects. Fortunately this is a little followed 30 year old company that most people remember when it was almost bankrupt in the early ninties. Corky is not the personality that Wall Street loves and will get respect and love when he delivers IVOD or gives the street some investment banking dollars (makes aquisition, sells the company or a division with their help or raises some capital which he really doesn't need). Forget all the banter, hype, pessismism, rumors, market action and posts (except mine), IF this is the real deal and I beleive it is, then this stock can get above $10 in the next 12 months. If I am wrong it will trade between 1.75 and 3.50 for the next 12 months. The bet should be to keep buying at prices below three every time a rumor dies or the perception that earings aren't good (anyone who talks to the company or has read anything they have written knows that their revenue has been and will continue to decline for the next quarter or two)or anthing else that allows this stock to fall and stay down for long periods of time. This could be a massive home run or it can be dead money. I have been in the game for a while, it is rare to find this little downside and this great an upside if you're right. I have read every post and in one shot I am letting you know what I feel is some valuable info to include in your decision process. There are some people on this thread who understand what is happening here, but not as much as they should. I am not a know it all. I am though a person who has done a lot of fact checking and face to face with this and other comapnies in the field. I think anyone posting on this thread should go out on the net or pick up the phone and do some real research and come back to report it to everyone else, all the banter is boring and quite often flawed, naive or untrue. But then again, it stinks to check the board and see no one there. Good luck to you all, I feel you will be well rewarded for staying the course.
