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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: country boy who wrote (7498)3/22/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Charlie Tuna  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11555
 
CB,just had to throw in my unsolicited opinion.. If the C6+
is faster than Intels low end cpu,which they really are still
working on,then the sky really is the limit .With the C6+ at
.25 and plenty of mfg capacity it is going to be a winner.
Anecdotal:I was a ChipSmart last weekend and they were selling
Winchip systems like hotcakes....spoke with several buyers
and most seemed pretty computer literate and knew what they
were getting....well the C6 is just the beginning .I really
think that the C6+ will perform way better in areas that the
C6 is week on.I just do not think that the PII and slot 1
are all that compelling.

However this is not going to happen over night and the risk is
very high not just with IDT but with the overall semi industry
Look what happened in Oct.....explain why IDT skidded down to
9 bucks . I got back in looking for a quick buck on the IBM news
and ended up losing .25 per share but am glad I took the small
hit.Do I think we will get another chance to buy at 9....maybe
anyone think we would see 9 last Oct? I really do not think
the stock has broken out and will not until they start producing
profitable quarters.The AMD hyp/dissappointment has really hurt
IDT's run so far.Actually I think AMD is getting ready to do well
but that is another subject.

Happy Trading,
Charlie




To: country boy who wrote (7498)3/22/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Respond to of 11555
 
Were talking about relative strength. A year or two ago people wondered if anyone would buy anything other than Intel Inside. The biggest limitation to market acceptance has ben the inability of competitors to produce the large quantity needed rather than a brand recognition or marketing problem. As far as brand recognition goes, the Compaq or IBM name slapped on the side of a box is all the brand recognition a uP mfg. needs. That sell s more PCs than the Intel brand recognition. I agree that name brands of PC mfgs will probably grow in importance and that Intel will retain a significant level of brand recognition and loyalty. If I though otherwise, I'd be projecting ASPs for IDT's uPs of a lot more than $60-$70.

AMD, Cyrix and AMD have been capacity constrained so I find it difficult to think that everyone is clamoring to pay more for an Intel part. Intel will keep 60% to 80% of the market. But the rest will share tens of millions in sales.

IDTI should be able to sell the parts they produce but it will not be like falling off a log. They will need to continue to be smart in how they target their designs and once they ramp production in how they go about marketing them. It will probably be very important to do a better than average job of tailoring the product to custoemrs exact needs, etc. There won't be streets paved with gold in the uP market. Intel can defend itself by dropping prices and mounting continued marketing campaigns and increasingly drawing profits from the high end. IDTI and others must pretty well make it in the market for uPs without massive contribution from other product areas. It's going to be a fight but having a piece of the most lucrative chip segment should make it well worth it.