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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (15368)	3/22/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: David O'Berry	Respond to of 68200

You make a very sound argument. What scares me is the fact that even selective buying of techs has produced gains in only certain companies in certain sectors. PE's are strictly company-centric instead of sector-centric. This has produced some very strange see-saw movements which cannot be solely attributed to typical tech volitility. I think this market is finally in for a correction. We might see a blow-off to the upside but I believe at least in some form or fashion this thing has got to breathe. I am too young too have remembered a real bear market. From my analysis, I have gleaned that it is not pretty. What has happened is that all of these 80's investors have been trained to buy on dips. This strategy has worked flawlessly for too long. The way this Asia situation has been blown off is rather amazing. Wall Street has spun this thing in such a fashion as to create a very false sense of almost complete and utter security. People are supposed to put money in funds and double their net worth every 5-7 years. I am surprised that fund managers are not signing statements to that effect at this point. Companies even write insurance policies against the loss of principle. This bullet proof market has simply broken all the rules. It is my contention that the techs are the first sign of the greater problems that are upon us. They are the nasty cough before the full flu manifests itself. Right now you have rotation into drugs and finance but that too can only last so long. Banks and companies failing in Asia ultimately translates into lost revenue all the way around. The Y2K situation is a lot more serious than many companies even want to admit and even if they fix everything before the deadline the draining of resources will be amazing and devastating. It is not just company centric but it is supply/demand chain centric. Not only do these large multi-nationals have to fix their problems but they have to make sure the people they deal with do not implode. Couple all of this with the challenges of the Euro conversion and the perils begin to be evident. I am not a doomsday prophet but I am a realist. It has been projected in one study I read last year that 35% of all small businesses will not be able to stay in business due to Y2K issues. Plug those numbers in any equation and it looks ugly. Mark my words, the techs are only the beginning. They have led the charge in this Bull market and they will lead the descent. Short term these guys may show some more strength as the boomers and retiree's continue to pump money into funds who, at this point, are running out of places to put money. But it is only temporary. To badly quote a most wonderful author "Once again into the breach my friends". As go the techs so go the rest. If they can rise up and plug the hole that is developing then so be it. Otherwise, the Bears will bust through and flank the entire market. At which point, woe be it unto him who stands in the path of Ursa Major. All comments welcome, David doberry@mindspring.com