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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john david martin who wrote (15925)	3/22/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Respond to of 95453

Although OPEC's success in the past has been mixed at best, both OPEC and non-OPEC producers got a stark reminder earlier in the week about what NY Merc crude oil traders will do to them if there is any more cheating. If supply is restricted, by 1.6M to 2M bpd, WTI prices can trade in a $16 to $19 per barrel range. As per the oil "experts," most were not expecting a coordinated OPEC/non-OPEC move. 83% were bearish on the market's prospects before today's move. By flooding the market with oil in 1986, the Saudis were able to force a stabilization in the market for quite a while. I think these production cuts will stick because the market won't tolerate it otherwise. Even Venezuela was surprised about how fast the price plunge occurred. The consequences of any member cheating were sharply brought into focus. Every once in a while, a "reminder" is needed. So, we disagree-I think the cuts will stick this time. Two divergent opinions make a market.