Market tends to go by cycle,, 180 days 90 days 45 days and roughly corresponds to seasonal cycle,, seasonal and annual low anniversary is April 14th 1997 (Remember all hell broke loose last year ?) It also was the last leg of the bull run ,,,,, looking back April 12th will be the end of the 90 day top, which started on Jan 12th ,,usually last run up is the end of the 90 day cycle..
The strong signal that many are getting is that the market is approaching final leg of the bull market .. or intrim top for next 45 days ...then another 45 days at another marginal high in Mid - July ,, I am worried about the gap from intrim now and the low gap of mid April,, and worried more about post July following high to high ,, this pattern is very BEARISH ..
Many are expecting SP of 1100 and 1110 with possible 1135 if it goes over 1110,,, 1100 area is potentially significant price/time square where index will be up 365 points in 365 calendar days measured from 733.54 intra low of April 14, 1997,, or witching Friday, March 20 1998 ,, shows a possible pull back next week to support 1072 and retest new high around April 13th .. If this happens we need to take money off the table ,,I mean sp and dow and nasd big caps,, I don't mean shitty pennies we play nor do I mean RNTK ... but I would be worrier holding stocks like Dell , MOT,, TXN ..etc...KO.. Pharms could be an exception ,,oil certainly can't go any lower..
Soon we might see an over balancing in the market,,then we go short,, buy the puts or sell short like no end.. we are looking at S&P cash index decline of about 23 points ....
I will be taking money off the table around April 6th ,, to have the cash position to buy the lows,, including stocks like CPQ ,,etc..I like PFE but I think we will see more lows..
One fools opinion .. |
