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Non-Tech : Analysts who are really, really bad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (9)	4/8/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25

Trey, Dan Niles strikes again. Is it me, or does Niles have a strange tendency to issue research right before an earnings release, which also quite strangely seems good for a few points until the company reports and then promptly tanks? Isn't that what happened on MU? This time, Niles made a wacky prediction on AMD's K6 production levels for 1998, raising his estimates from 11 million units to 13-15 million units as part of a research note that also helped raise AMD's stock price leading into last night's release. Niles 13-15 million unit prediction appears, well, downright Nilesian, considering that CEO Gerry Saunders stated that 12 mil. units was the max. they could do in 1998. I think today AMD may have shed a little of the Niles/Kumar points... ...and speaking of Piper Jaffrey's Ashtok Kumar...where's the #$%@#$ capital injection from IBM? Wasn't Kumar the guy who was going around all last week with the hot rumor that IBM was staking AMD? (and intrepid analyst watchers will also recall that Kumar was also the guy initiating AMD as a buy when his own estimates for the company were a few cents shy of the consensus). Niles' reaction to today's -10.5% bloodletting, as reported by Dow Jones: "I'm surprised they're down 3 (points)...There was a lot of speculation that IBM was going to invest in them, and there were a lot of people who bought it due to the takeover (rumors). Today, a lot of (the selling) is disappointment that there's no IBM announcement." Quite the cogent statement. Niles can take heart in the fact that thestreet.com has bestowed on this apparent bull market wonder the mantle "Compaq ax" and will be profiling him next week. Stupid me, I thought Merrill's Lucy Painter had a little more heft on CPQ than Dan Niles. Good trading, Tom