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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (15960)	3/23/1998 7:28:00 AM
From: Butcher of Bagdad	Respond to of 25960

I counted all the 10 and 20K blocks I could since the buying began under $20. From the old calculator, I came up with only 180,000 shares. That's less than 10% of the shares Cymer COULD buy back with the 50M. and Cymer might have bought not one of them, it could be someone else. IMO this speaks to something I have not heard recently. The float is very low and it doesn't take much money to manipulate this stock. Look how easy the MMs move it to just under the even price for options expiration. One day real soon this is going to work to our advantage. The last move up from $15 is getting stale and I believe there are people out there who would like to squeeze the shorts again at about the $25 mark. That's where I believe this stock is going In TWO WEEKS. My evidence? 1. Narrowing bollinger bands. As some others have mentioned, this phenomenon happened last prior to a big move to the upside. 2. New money flowing in to Cymer. Look at the on-balance volume and you will see. 3. Cymer formed a base at $20. We have not seen a stable base recently and it bodes well for the stock. 4. Support under $20 from forces unknown. All of these are indications that we are ready for a move. Taken one at a time, they might mean nothing, but together I think they paint a picture of an oversold stock regaining some momentum. The second move will confirm the bottom at $15 and force shorts to cover and mutual funds to take a second look. No one wants to be left out of Cymer when it starts to move; it is the purest play on the next generation chips and EVERYONE knows about Cymer. All institutions want to be in the stock before the next move. We are talking MONOPOLY here friends. Do you know how hard it is to find a monopoly in technology today? It's worth 3 times what you would pay otherwise. The ONLY reason it is not going up is everyone is waiting for the next conference call to see if the worst is past. Then it will trade at a P/E of 50 again in anticipation of higher earnings. Forget the $1.00 1999 estimate. It is a "straw man estimate", put out there to be knocked down and make Cymer look good later. That estimate no one believes and it is a joke for the little man to bite his nails on when he sees it and figures the stock is already at 20 times 1999 earnings. Do not be fooled by the big boys and their phony estimates which are put out there to make you think something with your 10 cent calculator. If measuring future P/E was that easy we would have monkeys doing it not $250,000 a year analysts. The 1999 eatimate will be upgraded several times before then. Cymer is a 10-bagger for those of you who are patient enough to stick it out and not be forced out of the stock with every little bump or rumor. I wouldn't write any covered calls on this issue under $25 for at least the next week. I think covered call writers and shorters are being set-up for a fall which will place shares in much stronger hands. This week will tell if I am right about the big move.