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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (16178)	3/23/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

<<But I also am begining to question their earnings estimates.>> I've used earnings estimate revisions in the past and I only believe they are valid when take against the trend. In other words when all is rosy and the stocks are going to the sky, the earnings revisions to watch are the one which are revised downward. Conversely, when everything is going to hell in a handbasket, you should be looking for earnings revisions upward. The sort of negative earnings revisions we saw last week with the E&P stocks along with a ton of "opinions" was a very clear signal that almost all the followers were out of the stocks. That is not necessarily the bottom but it sets the stage for those same followers to buy back in later. You are correct however when you point toward the kneejerk reaction of estimate revisions higher this week than last. That might indicate the someone is fooling around with computer models to make forecasts. Computer models are good up till a point, but as with all "models" if you feed it garbage, you get garbage for an answer. A good analyst knows that. I listened to the conference call last week when ML downgraded the E&P group. The one analyst was spouting the party line. The older analyst was calling for a V-shaped spike in oil prices because he knew how the Saudi's and OPEC worked vs. what some stupid computer model was telling him.