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Gold/Mining/Energy : Steppe Gold (SPE:V) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert Dydo who wrote (784)3/23/1998 4:40:00 PM
From: RMF  Respond to of 1248
 
Robert,
It's a right wing conspiracy!!!!
John, I was hoping for a little pop to unload my Steppe,
but now I gotta figure any .30 jr. audacious enough to go out and acquire other jrs. is either totally nuts or so dedicated that it may actually be successful.



To: Robert Dydo who wrote (784)3/23/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: Moot  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 1248
 
The Kazakhstan Syndrome

Let me begin by suggesting that when there is little or no activity in a stock the thread serves, at best, some social function. Serious investors, small or large, don't scan these threads searching for a place to put their money. And they certainly don't drop in to pop a question or two to some largely anonymous, partisan posters with the expectation of receiving answers upon which they will base their investment decisions. Someone might start by visiting the website which, in Steppe's case is a rather good one, to acquire some details about the company which might be further probed on the thread. I further suggest that the explanation for the lack of interest in Steppe may well be found there.

Marcos' opinion of the country notwithstanding, I don't think Kazakhstan is the major factor in Steppe's share price. I have always been uncomfortable with the 'Kazakhstan Syndrome' explanation. Over the past couple of months I've attempted to step back a bit and reassess the situation in the hope of coming up with an explanation that was more satisfactory to me. I believe I have at least the rudiments of a plausible account, though I don't derive much satisfaction from it; particularly since it is likely that a disinterested party might well view it as a simple matter of common sense rather than something that requires much in the way of analysis. I now think the reasons for Steppe's share price are specific to the company and only remotely related to general public opinion of Kazakhstan. If this is the case, the attempt to enlighten the public regarding Kazakhstan is a Quixotic quest--unnecessary, futile, and a questionable allocation of resources when pursued by management.

Steppe is a company with a small near-term gold project and enormous potential. Nonetheless, it is a junior resource company. I think we have to accept the fact that a large proportion of trading activity in such companies is generated by tactical traders or investors with a short-term horizon. If they take a critical look at Steppe, what do they see?

An important consideration is the trading history, and Steppe won't hold much appeal here. The stock has pretty much flat-lined for ten months now, so there certainly isn't much opportunity for the tactical trading that might draw some attention to the company and its potential. Even when it does trade, the volume is far from impressive. And it should be clear to everyone who has held the stock for the past year or so that the market does not respond well to its news releases. So the investor with a short-term horizon will not be enticed with the prospect that the next release will provide a pop to some reasonable target price. To this can be added the fact that there is a considerable amount of paper that has been purchased at substantially higher prices and held for quite some time. Some of those investors may well be looking for an opportunity to move their money elsewhere if there is any appreciation.

There is also the matter of share dilution. I believe the last figures available at the website showed approximately 39 million shares fully diluted. Since that time I think there have been three further placements. There is a further dilution as a consideration to Standard Bank, assuming the financing is completed, and the possibility of even more with respect to the convertible debenture financing of the Goldbelt acquisition. The potential share dilution must be in the neighbourhood of 50 million shares. When a junior resource company trading in the .30 range has that type of dilution, the spectre of consolidation--warranted or not--looms large to potential investors.

General market conditions in the past year or so have not been kind to resource companies and even less so to juniors. Even taking that into account, however, Steppe management clearly grossly under-estimated the time required to complete financing. There was talk of a financing decision last August. Steppe indicated to shareholders that Mizek would be in production in June of this year and, I understand, indicated to Kazakhstan that it would begin in 1998. These facts aren't lost on potential investors, and time is weighing heavily on existing investors.

Potential investors might justifiably question Steppe's pending acquisitions. This is a junior resource company with a huge land position, virtually no money, that has yet to complete the financing for Mizek. Is this the appropriate time to be making acquisitions? Are they spreading themselves too thin? Has their reach exceeded their grasp?

These are some of the factors that may better explain Steppe's share price than the 'Kazakhstan Syndrome'. These are real concerns of potential investors and raise legitimate questions.

Steppe's vision of its position in the future of Kazakhstan may well come to pass. The management team is certainly a very capable one. However, this wouldn't be the first junior with capable management and huge potential that didn't have the all the pieces to complete the puzzle. It wouldn't even be the first one I had a stake in.

Since there is little or no activity in this stock at the moment, perhaps this thread could fulfill its social function. Perhaps John could tell us what is happening with the legal and technical due diligence for the Mizek project. A little shareholder hand-holding may not be inappropriate.

Regards.