To: spacecowboy who wrote (144 ) 3/23/1998 9:46:00 PM From: 007 Respond to of 432
I don't have enough info to answer your question in a way that would be helpful. I should have a more developed opinion on this soon. If anybody has a source for steel prices, please let me know. I will say that the oil services sector was held down by questions over crude prices in the near-term. Since that issue appears to be resolved, it is very unlikely that new lows will be made by oil service stocks, including mavk. Therefore, if you are in mavk, the best advice is probably just to hold on and check back every week or so (easier said than done). I expect some sort of consolidation soon in the sector, but mavk doesn't really have far to drop and could easily move to 20 now and then come back a little before marching into the 20s. Of course, you never know but I think it's best to hold unless it drops below the prior low, or below whatever your loss threshold is. If it does go to the prior low (which I doubt), I will be buying. In short, lots of upside and very little downside from my foggy perspective. As far as steel goes, the benefits from last quarter's purchases shouldn't affect the price nearly as much as the future outlook. That's old news. The good news is that the low tube inventory levels will have to be replenished now that confidence is returning to crude prices. The most important thing is the psychological change caused by the firming of oil prices, and that should cause the oil service sector to continue it's uptrend with mavk's participation. By the way, OCTG stocks are much more closely linked to the oil services sector than the iron and steel sector. I will be adding more funds to this sector during the next consolidation phase, however, I am not yet sure which tube stock(s) I will purchase. More on that later. Congrats to all those who made a killing today, 007 PS For another nice value play, check out TCMS. It's still below book value and its chart has formed a very nice bottom.