To: Phillip C. Lee who wrote (9909 ) 3/23/1998 7:48:00 PM From: Sam Scrutchins Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213174
The money managers intentionally pushed the stock down to under $25 so all the calls expired would get less returns. In the afternoon, the stock naturally rebounded because most of March options have been cleaned up ... Phil, This is an interesting scenario you posit here. The following is the Friday and today's 5 min chart with volume only. It seems to corroborate your position.chart2.bigcharts.com The stock opened lower and quickly sold off gaping down to 24 5/8. This seemed to be a panic selloff, probably by those who got stuck in the calls, had to exercise them, then beat a hasty retreat. Smart moves here by the exchange specialist who let the market sag without providing much support. Then some buying came in, over 300K in one five minute period, before another but less intense wave of selling took over. Afterwards, the stock essentially created a 1-day reversal after the initial selling climax. This seems very bullish to me and is similar to what happened 2/3 weeks ago when the stock bottomed with a quick selloff at approximately 21 3/4 (I had my opportunity to pick up the Mar 22 1/2's at 1 1/2, but was not at a computer at the time). This bottom of about 25 also represented a pullback to a shortterm trend line that began forming at the beginning of February. It was violated a bit, but given the reversal and the down/up gap, the violation is likely irrelevant. The stock has been able to bounce off this trendline with great vigor and would benefit by heavy volume tomorrow. I agree that the stock could test the recent high, but I don't know how far it will punch through without more rumors or surprise announcements. Investors are probably a little nervous about substantial speculation at this point. Of course, any significant rumor like Jobs as CEO (seems an increasingly likely proposition to me) could send the stock through the roof. Moreover, any downturn over the next 3 weeks is likely to be brief in anticipation of the earnings and the annual meeting. However, if one is in options, watch out in late April for a substantial intermediate correction, especially if the aforementioned trendline is broken. Stockholders probably have little to worry about and may enjoy great future growth if the news remains positive. Just my two cents. Sam