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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teddy who wrote (16231)	3/23/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: JHR	Respond to of 95453

A LongTerm Perspective This is consistent with what some of you long term folks have been saying right along. Its from a newsletter I get written by Stephen Leeb, He's bullish the whole energy sector long term(5 to 10 years) He notes that through 1995 the energy demand fueled by India and China accounts for 40% of the increased energy demand worldwide. He also notes that currently the per capita consumption in China and India is only 15 percent of worldwide averages. A 10% increase in China and India (which would still put them at the low end of the usage spectrum) would translate into a 3% growth in worldwide demand. Further items in his latest note is that competitive altenatives dont become viable until oil prices more than double from current levels. He feels the only argument against energy investments are a major worldwide recession or extensive taxes on fossil fuels both of which are at best remote possibilities. His other point is that lower oil prices will just extend the current cycle since it will discourage new rig builds and its the shortage of rigs rather than higher oil prices that has driven this cycle. Not a whole lot that I haven't read on this board except for the quantification of the India/China demand numbers. It was a fun day.