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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Neil Booth who wrote (9565)3/24/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: Sam Scrutchins  Respond to of 10836
 
To Neil: Well??

Neil and All,

The jury is still out (as always until after the fact), but Borland seems to be forming an ascending right triangle on the daily charts. The stock has two highs: one at 10 in late February, and another at 9 7/8 about seven trading days ago. The first high (after the long runup from 6 5/8) was followed by a selloff to 8 3/8 in the first week of March. The second high was followed by the pop down yesterday to 8 9/16, from which Borland recovered nicely to 9 (sort of like a 1-day reversal, but without significant volume).

chart2.bigcharts.com

We need to see Borland approach the top Bollinger Band on increasing volume this week, and a punch through to 10 and beyond later this week or next week (to break up and out of the triangle would be great). Any downward move at this point probably negates this formation.

Looking at the longer trend, and consistent with the forthcoming news announcements and earnings report if these turn out to be positive, Borland looks to move up to somewhere between 13 and 16 over the next few months. The potential range is wide right now because of the uncertainty of revenue. Also, the market is probably due for a correction before too long.

Such a move is consistent with something that TChai told me about a few weeks ago--Gants 6 to 8-week psychological exhaustion period representing a correction following a major move, which Borland has done since the recent peak at 10. In addition and after the 10 to 11 resistance, there is little more until around 13 1/2 to 14. There should be somewhat stronger resistance around 16-17, judging from the volume by price charts I have posted before. These two areas frame my expectations for the summer.

Here's hoping this is the beginning of the move up. At any rate, I took a chance yesterday and bought the Jul 10's, so more of my money is where my mouth is <g>.

Sam