To: Tim Luke who wrote (40725 ) 3/24/1998 11:51:00 AM From: djane Respond to of 61433
Cramer returns as a public ASND bull Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Berkowitz Is Away, So Cramer Wades Back into Tech By James J. Cramer 3/24/98 11:26 AM ETthestreet.com Out of the tech woods -- or just a meadow cleared by loggers? As I said Monday, we are on the hunt for tech names now that we have finished much of the preannouncement season. Looks like others are, too. People are emboldened and heartened by the lack of downside follow-through in Quantum and the encouraging bounce in the networkers. I feel like Tom Cruise, having a party at my house while my folks are away. Jeff, my partner, is sunning himself in Puerto Rico, leaving me with the Porsche and some wicked goodies like Cisco, 3Com and Ascend, all of which I find myself long courtesy of a belief that the worst is over. Jeff agrees with Cisco, especially after I filled him in on last night's reassuring Cisco dinner with Merrill Lynch. Ascend, he likes as a spec. But 3Com, I am afraid we are an opposite sides. He feels that it goes up only because, like Quantum, it is so bad that everybody in the world knows it's bad -- including Herb Greenberg. "Everybody's still short this darn thing," he says. But, he says, there is no story there. In fact he doesn't think there is a there there. Maybe he and Herb should open a hedge fund!! Nonetheless, like the kid in Risky Business, I know the folks have to come home sometime, and before the Porsche goes U-Boating, I intend to be nimble on tech, knowing that preannouncements take a break, but then reload at the last day or two of the month. I know that if I sink the Porsche today, I have time to clean it up before Jeff comes back. What's making people like me feel more bullish, given the ugliness in personal computers and the slowdown in hardware in general? Ah, look under your nose, people. The Internet service providers and competitive local exchanges are accelerating spending, taking up the slack for the ne'er-do-well RBOCs. Even ultra-conservative Cisco confirms that. It doesn't hurt that the IPO market has heated up, either. That emboldens a lot of people who might be on the sidelines. Finally, the Hersheys of the world have gotten so expensive versus the 3Coms -- even if you include the Saniflush numbers -- that maybe it's okay to wade in. The valuations of tech versus safety seem a bit out of whack to me. Anyway, I've got three more days to make money before Jeff comes back. And I'm gonna do it in tech. ********** Random musings: Okay, let's say I am wrong about tech. How many of you out there will attack me gratuitously for doing what I think is right? By my take at least a half-dozen of you will be in there with your TOW missiles mowing me down. Go ahead. Believe me, it doesn't hurt nearly as much as the losses I will incur if I am wrong. That's the true discipline here, not the flaming letters. James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. At time of publication his fund is long Ascend, 3Com and Cisco. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback, emailed to Jjc@thestreet.com. See Also WRONG! DISPATCHES FROM THE FRONT ARCHIVE