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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LoLoLoLita who wrote (6114)	3/24/1998 4:32:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

TALKING POINT/Viagra is Pfizer's double-edge sword By Ransdell Pierson NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - Pfizer Inc's. stock has rocketed in recent weeks on high hopes for its impotence drug "Viagra," but analysts fear that if the drug fails to deliver, the company's shares may come under a selling attack. "Certainly Viagra is the biggest reason for the recent move in the stock. There's no room for any disappointment now. Pfizer can't afford to stumble or it will suffer a pullback," said ABN-AMBRO Securities analyst James Keeney. Wall Street analysts expect the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to grant marketing approval to Viagra, the first oral tablet for impotence, by March 29. Some said it could become the best selling drug of all time with annual sales of $5 billion or more. The anticipated revenue stream and promised benefits to as many as 30 million American males with varying degrees of erectile dysfunction have helped fuel a 27 percent increase in Pfizer shares so far this year. That eclipses a 17 percent gain marked over the same period by the American Stock Exchange Pharmaceutical Index, a group of two dozen of the largest U.S. and European pharmaceutical companies. Moreover, Pfizer's recent run-up follows a pace-setting 80 percent jump in 1997. Add it all up, and Pfizer's current price to earnings ratio of 47 far exceeds the drug group's P/E ratio of 33. ABN-AMBRO's Keeney said comprehensive medical data on Viagra (sildenafil) have not yet been published, so there's no guarantee it will have a "clean label" -- a package insert indicating no worrisome side effects. "Any serious restrictions -- such as how many times you can take it per week -- could hurt sales," said Keeney, adding Pfizer has acknowledged that a small percentage of men taking Viagra have had vision problems which include seeing a very temporary bluish haze. The drug, which requires sexual arousal to work, is expected to cost $7 to $10 a pill. Taken about an hour before sex, it relaxes smooth muscle cells in the penis -- the first step in achieving an erection. In 21 trials of 4,500 patients, Pfizer said questionnaires showed a favorable response of 59 percent for patients with physiological causes of dysfunction, 81 percent among those with psychological causes, and 74 percent with mixed causes. "Based on the groundswell of attention it's already gotten, Viagra's sales should be strong right off the bat," said Alex. Brown & Sons analyst Barbara Ryan. "The stock has been going through the stratosphere, driven by Viagra psychology, so there's a tremendous downside if the product ends up with an onerous side-effect label or if sales start out slow and sloppy. But I don't expect any of these negative outcomes," Ryan said. She said Viagra, as a pill, will have instant advantages over current top therapies: Pharmacia & Upjohn's Caverject which involves an injection into the penis; and Vivus Inc's MUSE system where a medication is placed into the tip of the penis. "I'd say most people would prefer an oral pill over an injection," Ryan said. Caverject had worldwide sales of $88 million in 1997, somewhat higher than MUSE revenues. Hemant Shah, an independent New Jersey drug analyst, said glaring media coverage will only intensify once Viagra is approved and launched. "The stock price already reflects the potential tabloid attention it will get and assumes everything that can go right," Shah said. "So I'd have to say there's more potential downside risk than upside potential for Pfizer." "But nobody knows how many people will use it and its long term potential because there's no other drug like this in the past. And it involves human and emotional issues," Shah said. Keeney said Pfizer's strong portfolio of other drugs and promising pipeline limited downside risk in the longer term, although a Viagra disappointment would punish shares in the short term. Alex Zisson, a drug analyst for Hambrecht & Quist, noted many news articles have speculated Viagra will emerge as a recreational sex drug. "Pfizer is concerned about that and are not going to position this as a drug for everyone -- just for patients with real medical need," Zisson said, adding that a controlled, carefully positioned launch was imperative. 16:05 03-24-98