To: Ray Thackeray who wrote (5349 ) 3/24/1998 4:50:00 PM From: dougjn Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9068
My bet on this company is really basically part of my of my larger bet on Windows NT in my company diversified, but tech heavy (NOT PC hardware, chip or chip maker) portfolio. I have a strong belief that NT will roll over Unix, and generally the Workstation, Server business, in the next few years. That is based on the desire of the corporate computer IT manager to bet on a sure strong contender. NT has a real shot at being a clear technical winner, but increasingly will be seen to have a lock on being the safe bet. Which is what matters for the bulk of that market. NT is inexorably positioned to be the operating system which you will not be fired for implementing. (A la IBM in the mainframe heyday.) It will take longer to convert successful legacy Unix systems, but increasingly most new implementations of applications will be based on NT platforms. Because NT is now at least competitive. Because you know that it will only get better. Because you know that Microsoft won't give up, and will be around for a long, long time. Sun, five years from now, who knows? Microsoft, we all know. This will not of course last forever, and will face repeated challenges. But Msft's handling of the Internet challenge suggests they are a much more nimble techno (the desire for standards based) temporary monopoly than IBM was, and so long as the Gates culture continues vital, are likely to stay there. So I try to find smaller companies with more operating leverage than Microsoft (though I like them too) to bet on to ride the MSFT NT steamroller. Longer term, I believe that Unix and the Unix space, will go the way of the minicomputer makers. They won't die, but they will also become increasingly marginalized. I'm about as certain of this as any particular bet in the investing universe. Its a damn good bet, my opinion. Doug