To: Don S.Boller who wrote (521 ) 3/24/1998 9:37:00 PM From: Phil Jacobson Respond to of 3873
Don, I see LVLT a lot like a venture capitalist would look at it. Is there a market for the product or service? Are the plans well thought out? Is the team strong with a well established track record in similar businesses? Is there any cash? I don't have all the answers but I believe the risk/reward based on the track record in similar situations is worth it. I've worked in the telecom sector for 14 years and I can't overstate how important it is for the management team to act boldly, take the market by storm, and never be indecisive or halting in its movements. Intuition and experience are critical, but only when combined with willingness to act. The leadership in the telecom service sector is changing to people like Bernie Ebbers and Joe Nacchio. Jim Crowe is a lot more like them than GTE's Chuck Lee or MCI's Bert Roberts. The days of Bert Roberts and Robert Allen are over. (Michael Armstrong is interesting but let's face it, that's one hell of a job he's got to eliminate enough layers so he can even move that battleship). Look at how WorldCom got MCI after blowing past BT and GTE - complacent companies that probably when combined would have been a hulking mess. When WCOM first announced their bid I looked at the balance sheet and thought the bid was a joke - a red herring meant to throw confusion into the BT/MCI merger. All they have is goodwill. Take a look for yourself - it's totally shocking to see what is possible with a balance sheet that looks like only so much single ply toilet paper. Yet it works because of aggressive management. QWST and Joe Nacchio are very similar to WCOM and Bernie Ebbers. That will be the battleground into which Level 3 enters. And I think Crowe has what it takes to deal and compete there. And the $3 billion in cash is not small change. The stock market has bid up the price of WCOM and QWST to astronomical levels because no matter how many shorts, how many articles about overvaluation, how many questions about THIS quarter's revenues and profits, there is still Ebbers and Nacchio showing everyone how to build a 21st century telco. The plans are what drives the stock price (not the number of microwave towers - thank god) and the plans are the result of the individuals. I'll take Crowe and $3 billion anyday over an old style telecom with a bunch of underutilized ATM networks, $10 million Nortel switches, and marketing strategies that revolve around 3 month planning calendars where innovation is stifled because it might hurt someone's install plan. Re: the RBOC's, I believe they are going to pay dearly in about 2003 for the poor service and complacency they have gotten away with by dint of their wired monopoly. Phil