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To: abcde_98 who wrote (1552)	3/24/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2946

No problem about the posts abcde. What are you willing to pay for SVGI if anything? I don't see it sky-rocketing anytime soon, but I don't see much downside either. When do you think semi-equips will make a move? Will it be down or up? My take is that we need clear evidence of a supply/demand correction in ICs and most are expecting it to occur in the fall. I would concur on the majority on this point. I believe Win 98 will be responsible for a major upgrade cycle in the summer followed by NT 5.0 in early '99. With the lack of spending on DRAM capacity and some coming offline(http://techweb.cmp.com/sbn/stories/8c24hita.htm), I think supply/demand come into balance around year-end, but stocks in the sector usually anticipate such things. Thought? Bob

To: abcde_98 who wrote (1552)	3/24/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: FJB	Respond to of 2946

Just found this on the FSII thread: techweb.cmp.com

To: abcde_98 who wrote (1552)	3/24/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: David Aegis	Respond to of 2946

abc, IMHO SVG is worth much more than FSII due to the upside from Micrascan and because Micrascan's can be expected to benefit more from the ongoing line shrink cycle because lithography is an enabling technology for the shrink. FSII only does track systems, which do not necessitate as much in terms of a replacement cycle to achieve line shrinks. This is why back end assembly and test has beat the pants off front end equipment book to bill over the past several months, since back end equipment benefits more from unit volume increases associated with aggressive line shrinks. --David