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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Brian who wrote (1286)	3/24/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Michael, It comes down to confidence in your financial system. Already I've heard some folks who are "in the know" tell me that they are forming contingency plans in case we are forced to decouple Asia's financial markets for our own. Same thing may occur with Europe as they continue to participate in the folly of hailing in the Eurodollar, to the detriment of Y2K remediation. Look at Indonesia if you require a small example of what could happen if our financial institutions are undermined either through systemic failure or through a crisis of liquidity as well all opt to hold cash rather than take the chance our banks go on a "bank holiday". Reviewing the history of FDIC capabilities relative to recent banking failures, I don't hold much hope that that agency will be able to contain the domino effect of 10 institutions, let alone 10-30% of US banks failing due to Y2K. Yes we are undergoing an economic paradigm shift, but the psychology of the public equity and financial markets operate under their own set of rules. We live in interesting times. And I haven't even broached the National Security implications of Y2K around the world, especially with respect the readiness of our own armed forces and their ability to react to regional and global threats from those seeking to take advantage of the confusion. (Hint: US M1 Abrams are basically heavily armed/armored computers packed with laser range finders, IFF, gyrostabilized main armament... etc. Russian built vehicles lack many of these niceties, but guess which ones stand more of a chance of operating on Jan 2, 2000??? And Russian equipment does not incorporate "Fly by Wire" technology like US jet fighters.) Do you feel yourself breaking out in a cold sweat yet??.... <wink> Regards, Ron

To: Michael Brian who wrote (1286)	3/25/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Answer for "Why be so pessimistic?" >>> Our and 1/2 of the world's economy have shifted to information and computer age economies. <<< Yes. Exactly. This economy leverages the increases in productivity from information technology. If this infrastructure has major problems, alot of jobs become irrelevant. (People who use the tools and maintain the machines (appliance operators) are not capable of fixing the problems, so they are laid off until someone else fixes them.) And there is a shortage in people who can fix the problem. >>> Therefore, while the Y2K solutions will take some outputs to be flat or down, the others related to information and computers will increase substantially. How can a depression then occur? <<< If this Y2K thing were only a computer industry problem, you might be correct. However, the problem manifests itself in places like electrical generation and power distribution. With so much of our economy information related, how can we not have a depression if the required electrical infrastructure fails? >>>Also, when so many people expect something in the market, as this board and others like it suggest, it usually does not happen.<<< If do many people expect a crash, why are virtually all the markets at record highs? It's a buy/sell market. so one must conclude that only a very small minority expect a crash at this time. >>>A recent feature article in IBD pointed out that companies spending on Y2K solutions are also investing heavily in other major upgrades.<<< From personal experience, I know that companies are making cuts in some future technology areas to pay for Y2K projects. >>>It all boils down to seeing a glass half empty or half full.<<< It all boils down to people focusing on inappropriate, over-simplified models of the world-wide economy. "half empty or half full" becomes completely empty if electrical power stays down making the city water pumps non-functional.