Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (35477)	3/25/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Watchtower	Respond to of 176387

Watchtower--Geof Nunn.A rather, astute, perceptive commentary(IMHO).I hope you enjoy looking back a distance at some similar thoughts...No doubt SI is a well informed, provocative thread: ENJOY LIFE TO THE FULL! To: China Trader (33723 ) From: David E. Taylor Thursday, Mar 12 1998 2:12PM EST Reply # of 35477 Away myself for a day and look what happened! Looks like DELL was steadily shaking off the CPQ warning when the HWP comments set it back yet again. FWIW, I see the new "floor" on DELL as being around 60, because that's all the current analyst earnings valuations and growth estimates will support. Assuming the general market holds up (or doesn't decline more than 5% through March/early April) and we don't get any more PC industry bombshells (are there any left?), I think DELL will remain in a trading range of 60 to 70 max until the next earnings report in May. DELL seems to have done all they could to reassure the analyst community that they see no effect on DELL's earnings from either CPQ's inventory woes or a price war, nonetheless the market perception now seems to be that this does pose a threat to DELL's earnings that only the Q1 results will remove. As the highest priced PC manufacturer stock, DELL seems to be more affected right now than IBM, HWP, GTW, though that could change in a matter of days. My trading plan for DELL is to buy on any weakness near 60, sell at 66+, at least for the next month. Next big run up will not be until late May, unless some positive industry news comes out. IMO, the best scenario for long term DELL holders is that the analysts will reduce their estimates for DELL's Q1 over the next month or so, giving DELL a better chance of beating them handily again. My estimate for Q1 is still 0.42 to 0.44, well above the analysts' mean, because I haven't seen anything to suggest that PC growth is going to slow down in 1988/1989. David T. To: China Trader (34344 ) From: Watchtower Saturday, Mar 14 1998 3:56AM EST Reply # of 35481 Watchtower:China Trader and David Taylor I have been synthesizing historical data so as to attempt to identify any frequency of volatility, of Dell, inclusive of variant factors (both internal factors (Dell/sector/market-specific) as well as external factors (Dell/sector/market-non-specific) that would constitute what I will refer to "anomalic patterns". These anomalic patterns, referred to, would defy technical and functional analytical charts. I believe I have potentially identified the same. If my theory is correct Dell will gain 5pts to 8pts by this Wednesday March 18, 1998, defying the norm (which is inclusive of defying $0 value option prices of options $5 or > but < $10 "out of the money" for the month of March. The profound thing is that this event my go by unoticed. If this pans out... I will disclose how I arrived at this theorem. WTC To: Steven Call (34826 ) From: Watchtower Thursday, Mar 19 1998 10:39AM EST Reply # of 35482 Watchtower-Steven Call...My theorm (or my "allusion of grandier") in last Saturday's (March 19) Posting indicated that Dell would gain 5pts-8pts this week. (Dell has gain 2.5 pts, Todate). My determination of findings,as it were, is based on the hypothesis that conventional market variables acting as drivers of Yesterday's market trends are rapidly becoming irrelevant in todays "new millennium" market. Dell is representative of technology and advanced business modeling evolving on "Demings" statistical process control model or "Crosby's" quality maturity structure. IMHO therefore, Dell's market price "signature" in terms of its unique price trends (as an entity) will be rather "anomolic" in nature, until the "gravitational pull" of the new market drivers (once defined/evolved) forces Dell into a new sector market trend( or orbit). New variables are evolving which will replace the conventional market variables. Why? Because we are in a transitional Market. One might even refer to it as a "new economic dispensation". One perhaps that will naturally accommodate the new global marketplace that, has been evolving since the early 90s. Simply put, the dust has not settled yet! The new market drivers are not yet fully defined, thus the volatility and yet upward climb of the market continues. And as the lyrics to one song states"...where its going to stop, nobody knows". However, as Mao stated, (so ironically)"where there is crises, there are opportunities". How much more this pithy applies to today's new millennium and global marketplace. This marketplace has given birth to not a few millionaires... I hope you, also, become one of them, if you have not already.