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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (1297)	3/25/1998 9:38:00 AM
From: Hockeyfan	Respond to of 9818

Market Psychology will Cause Pullback Regardless of Facts 1) Mortgages and other loans - As long as you save paper documentation (cancelled check, etc.) and your amortization schedule you should have no problem proving how much you owe if required to. All businesses, including the IRS, will likewise print out a paper copy of balances owed them. I don't see much opportunity for slippage here. The saved data files will eventually be restored and life will go on. 2) I admit that I don't completely understand the entirety of the Y2K problem or whether there will even be a material problem. That does not matter. What matters is if the market PERCEIVES that there will be a problem. The psychology of the investor drives the stock and bond markets. It is not the facts, but how those facts are interpreted by the market players. This is going to be the biggest news story next year. What makes better headlines? Everything will be OK or the race to fix the programs before the deadline? Sprinkle the increased news coverage with daily reports of doomsday wackos offing themselves and even the most skeptical people may opt to put a little money under their mattress. Does this start a chain reaction? Who knows? Timing - everybody knows about the January effect, which is why it happens in late December now. The Y2K slowdown will be difficult to judge. I would just as soon have my money in liquid Treasury bills during all of 1999 earning 5.5% + the price appreciation from the imminent rush into Treasuries after me than take a chance the fully-valued market will add on another 15%+ year. I also plan to have some cash stuffed in my safe, just in case the ATMs shut down for a while and the businesses are not accepting checks or credit cards. P.S. Better get those 1999 Christmas presents returned quickly.