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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UpwardBound who wrote (7676)	3/25/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

UB, The bad news that was announced is in the stock. How can we determine this? Scientifically--it went up on the bad news!<g> But this stock--and this sector--is SO washed out. A lot of people appear to believe that they will NEVER come back; others think that this downcycle will end in another 1-3 quarters. See this article for one industry opinion biz.yahoo.com --but take it in context--it is coming from a Singapore company in the drive business that is trying to sell stock, so what else is he going to say? Nevertheless, it is not implausible. If it does happen this way (i.e., the downcycle ends by Aug/Sept), then the time to buy the drive stocks is either now or soon. If it still looks like that after the CCs this quarter, then the stocks should go up another 20-25%. If it is still murky, they should probably still be hanging around in here, up or down a couple of points, with their current trading ranges more or less intact barring worse news for a particular company (if there is that kind of worse for one company, then the others may get boosted, especially if it looks like that company will go under or have to be acquired). If the news is really bad--if they are still way overproducing (as TrendFocus seemed to suggest recent)--then there may well be a new lower trading range. But disk drives are not yet like bugeys and saddles around 1910; they are still a necessary part of computing, and despite the new (relatively speaking) competition, there still aren't that many companies in this business. Nor is the drive bizz like the DRAM bizz; it hasn't been targetted in the same way, doesn't have the same kind of competition, even though it is obviously competitive. Things will shake out, companies will consolidate or go under, the business will be healthy again at some point. The question is still when, not if, to my mind. Sam