Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1312)	3/25/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Melissa, I think you mean 30, not 60. I'm not so good at calling short term movements. I own Vantive for the long term, and I think the psychology has changed for the stock. I think it will consolidate in this range for a while - some folks are probably waiting to get a pulse on the company's q1 and the pipeline for the balance of the year. So maybe it moves after q1. I'm in Vantive because I think its multiple is reasonable and if you look out one year and pay a 30 to 35 multiple on forward earnings you could have a $50 stock. I'm not in SEBL, because I stay away from major merger and aquisition activity in technology companies - especially with the challenges we've talked about. (BTW, I like tactical technology acquisitions that leverage customer base and distribution channel.) I especially hate overlapping direct sales force integration. In addition, I get much different customer feedback when I look at the success/failure of Sebl's sfa implementations versus the success of vantive's implementations. Since it's been a long time since I've slung code, I evaluate my technology stock selection using one primary characteristic - return on investment - Does implementation of a product substantially improve an organization's process? I think SEBL will put up a decent quarter and the whisper is that Scop may pull off an ok march q. (Ori and Tom have been doing some jet setting to close enough deals to offset the reversals we've been hearing about and SCOP entered q1 with a backlog.) So, putting up good q1 numbers may push up sebl stock. In addition, SEBL stock may bounce as Tom triumphantly announces his SFA win at Microsoft which everyone on this thread has known about for some time. But those factors don't offset the challenges I'm worried about. Given the valuation and the near term challenges, the downside is too great over the next 6 months to make the upside appealing to me. I like the SFA space and I'm watching SEBL closely - a major correction may make me take a closer look, or moving through the integration successfully will drive me to rethink my position. TD