With all the shorts doubting everything I decided to go back and review old news, and update it in my mind, and see if my old numbers still had any credibility in my own mind. I am quoting from Darby's letter to shareholders, and that is my point of reference.
>>This disease affects over half of all babies born and nearly 100% of all premature children. Every infant born is monitored for it. >>
Approximately 4,000,000 mm babies are born in the US each year, so 2,000,000 babies are possbile candidates for our device, and at least 1 test.
>>The Company has identified what we call "chromogenic diseases". While technically this is not a defined medical term, it describes diseases which currently are or the Company believes can be diagnosed or monitored by the coloration of human skin, tissue or fluids. There are many of these diseases such as anemia, hepatitis, tuberculosis, forms of malignancy evaluated through biopsy tissue and different fluid laboratory analyses. >>>
Thew shorts have been claiming there is no such thing as "chromogenic diseases" and CCSI agrees with them. However, call it what you might, there might be other applications for the technology in various diseases.
>>This disease affects over half of all babies born and nearly 100% of all premature children. Every infant born is monitored for it. It is a liver-related disease and fundamentally occurs in varying degrees within the first two weeks of a child's life when the liver is trying to work on its own independent of the mother. If the liver doesn't take over quickly enough and the disease is not caught in time and then treated by phototherapy or exchange transfusion, the results can lie varying degrees of nervous system damage/or brain damage called Kernicterus. If left untreated, it is ultimately fatal. >>
>>Scientists learned a long time ago that the disease causes a yellow staining of any affected cells. If an autopsy is performed on a child who dies from kernicterus the brain cells will be stained a yellow color. The medical community also very early on observed that the disease affected the yellow color of the baby's skin. However, the only method accurate enough to monitor it was a blood test, often taken many times a day, where a laboratory spectrophotometer would measure the stained color of the blood serum to determine in mg/dl the amount of bilirubin present...
>>At that time, the Company announced that it had identified three market segments for bilirubin testing:
1) Hospitals >>
This market is where we get the $330 million US market
>>2) Pediatricians Offices or Clinics and >>
We don't know what these numbers can be, but there 50,000 pediatricians in the US, and I daresay each one will have at least 1 device per office, and multiple tests, so this is incremental to the $330mm market.
>>3) Home Health Care Market.>>
Now this market really gets my attention. Hmmm, 2 million babies go home early, maybe first time mothers, no experience with bilirubin, I wonder how many times they will test their infants. Once, twice, three times????????? Not only first time mothers, if it is my newborn, and it might have a problem, a mother might act like a father with the tv remote control, and click many times. This market is going to be the tail that wags the dog.
The Company also indicated that it would seek distribution in four major geographic locations:
1) United States and Canada =$330mm
2) Europe, not including Eastern Europe =$330mm
3) South America and =$87mm
4) Parts of Asia.=$330mm ( but this number might be very low)
total market = $1.077 billion, and add the home health car market, and the pediatrician market and the numbers go up significantly.
10% penetration the 1st year still is over $100mm/2-expenses/13.77mm shares.
Medical technology stocks sell for 30+ P/E's. looking forward CCSI is a multiple from here.
on.
At this time, the Company has completed its analysis of the existing United States market for bilirubin blood tests on newborn infants, and the approximate size of the same market in the developed countries of Europe, South America and Canada combined, and parts of Asia.
The World Health Organization has published the current annual birthrate of approximately 4,000,000 births in the United States, with approximately 10% of these births being premature infants. Using numbers of individual bilirubin tests on newborn infants (heelsticks), which are not part of a general panel blood test, the Company estimates there are approximately 15,000,000 bilirubin blood tests currently performed annually, in monitoring Bilirubin infant jaundice in the United States.
In making this conservative estimate, the Company assumed averages of one test (not part of a panel test) for full term infants in hospitals before discharge and one test at or after discharge, and an average of 1-2 (or 1.5) tests (not part of a panel test) for premature infants in hospitals during an average length of hospital stay of 11 days, with the remaining tests representing infants treated after discharge. These assumptions were based on publications by the World Health Organization, the American Academy of Pediatrics, independent market studies commissioned by the Company and business proposals from potential marketing partners.
The Company believes that published amounts for the current reimbursement by third party carriers for heelstick bilirubin tests, not part of a general panel, range between $22-$34 per test in the United States. Assuming a $22 fee, the Company estimates a current annual amount spent on monitoring bilirubin jaundice in the U.S. of $330,000,000.
Internationally, using the World Health Organization birthrates, independent market studies and research obtained from companies currently marketing neonatal medical devices in foreign countries, the Company estimates that
- the current European market for infant bilirubin tests is approximately the same size as the U.S.
- South America, and Canada combined represent approximately 25% of the U.S. market size
- and the Southern Chinese and entire Japanese markets combined represent approximately the same size of market as the United States.
1.922,000 shares short. They have patience if they are pros, but when the news strikes, do they have $20-25 to buy back their short, or do they short more, then get hit with cosmetics and dental etc.. the only problem with these guys, they harp about SPRX, but other than a name they don't have a case just a bet, and THEIR BET IS 100% WRONG.
See ya at the cashiers window when the CCSI pony tramples you. |
