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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (9039)	3/25/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I'm with you guys ... this is my contrarian long position. I don't really get it, but the market moves on earnings ... which for most of these internet types isn't a factor, and news. AOL will meet the first and just churns out the latter. Maybe I am starting to get it !. Besides, I'd rather own this than 3com or Micron ... or a bunch of other tech stocks where the co's are really going to struggle going forward. Hey ... maybe I'm becoming a convert!. Nah .. It must be this Mickey Mouse market movement! Good luck everyone! Stephen

To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (9039)	3/25/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: Bob Kimball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

We should salute Bald Man... he said wait to 140 (pre-split) to short! If any of you have read Gann (hopefully you will make your money trading instead of writing books) you've been introduced to the frequency with which major reversals are made at round number multiples. Remember the old pre-split peak at 72? We're just about there. Doubt it breaks 72 by more than a hair this time, if it even gets there. For the near term, a key reversal down is always music to a bear's ears!!!

To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (9039)	3/25/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Robert Lawkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

I agree that the price of AOL is ridiculous. What do any of you think the share price "should" be? I think you can safely divide the market cap by 5 to come up with a reasonable valuation. This is a company that has over 12 million customers and doesn't have any significant earnings to date, nor is it expecting to down the road. At what point is this company actually supposed to be significantly profitable? Is its move to an advertising/media revenue model ever really going to generate the revenue to justify a anything near its $14 billion market cap? I'm interested in hearing how. On the ISP side, it seems that the price competition is going to get rather fierce and the business has very slim margins to begin with. The business is "growing" based upon subscriber growth but to what end? Just because you are spinning your wheels faster and faster, doesn't mean you are actually going any where. What is the fascination?