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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JR who wrote (3963)	3/26/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: margie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Researchers reported in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine that the powerful three-drug combination known as the AIDS cocktail dramatically cut the rate of death by 75% and cut the infection rate for AIDS-related diseases by 73%. It was also reported on the ABC National News this evening. abcnews.com The cocktail was equally effective for men and women and there were no differences in race or ethnicity. >The team of Dr. Frank Palella of Northwestern University Medical School in Chicago examined the records of 1,255 patients from nine clinics in eight U.S. cities. The study, sponsored by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, looked at patients' records from January 1995 through June 1997. "This was not an idealized, clinical trial," Palella said. "This was real life. Patients didn't receive the drugs for free. There were no drug companies funding it." > One significant difference noted was that patients "with private health insurance were likely to get protease inhibitors - the cocktails third ingredient that sparked the massive improvements - much sooner than those receiving publicly funded care." >Palella said later that "the difference was only a few months, but in someone suffering severe immunosuppression, that's a critical time." > The article discusses the cost of the drugs precluding their use in developing countries; the challenges of survival such as receiving help in finding employment instead of help in learning how to write wills; and dealing with the side effects like protease paunch. JR: Re: "Zacks raised Agouron to a 1 last week." That 2 at Yahoo or Briefing Books is the Current Average Recommendation of all the analysts' ratings. That is different from Zacks's rating or the Z indicator which comes from Ben Zacks. I subscribed to Zack's Analyst Watch a long time ago and it is emailed to me. On January 6th, the Zack's rating was a 5; then January 14th it was 4; January 27th +3; January 28th +2, then March 19th +1. Zacks has pretty accurately predicted the upwards and downwards movement of Agouron's stock price BEFORE the actual stock movement, and I have followed it since 4/96. I haven't followed their recommendations for other stocks. Zacks does have a 1 which is a Strong Buy. As far as the other analysts, there are 3 strong buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 3 Holds. Analysts' ratings for Agouron often change after earnings, as they have beat the estimates the last 2 or 3 quarters. I doubt if this time will be any different, especially with the 30% market share and earlier than expected launch of Viracept in Europe by Roche etc. After awhile, one gets used to analysts changing their recommendations from a Strong Buy to a Hold AFTER a company misses estimates or to analysts who raise their ratings after a company blows away estimates. Fifteen analysts had a Strong Buy on Compaq this month, the day before Compaq issued an earning's warning. It's pretty funny watching Joe Kiernan et al on CNBC poking fun at analysts who change their recommendations after a warning (or miss) but before the market opens, so they can be on record as changing their recommendations before.