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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (1432)	3/26/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I would expect a much larger percentage of the indicators on Marketgauge to be negative if we were really at the turning point. Some of these may not shift to negative until after the fact, and thereby provide a very strong confirmation of what has already started. The premature pessimism --by Alan Abelson and elsewhere-- in Barron's has been reminiscent of the permabear views of the New York Times in the 1920s, and probably represents the sanest cautionary attitude to be found in widely read journalism. In effect, Barron's is to our time what the financial pages of the Times were in 1929. As long as prospective retirees--people in the age bracket 35-55--continue to view mutual funds as a savings account for the future, the market will not decline much. But last October--to judge from what I read--many such savers were on the edge of switching from equity to money market accounts where they had that option. My own view is that a steady decline for a few weeks in the markets could set off large-scale switching that would guarantee a very deep bear market. But when and why that initial decilne will begin I wouldn't know. The confidence in equities is like the confidence in a country's currency just before inflation sets in.