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Gold/Mining/Energy : Alta Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (547)	3/26/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Francois H. Gaston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 749

I am still not convinced, after my reading, that a correction, right now, would be of any big significance and duration because everybody is in the mood of buying the dip right away. The mutual fund managers are locking in some profits for their quarters and are talking the market down, for them to reenter shortly thereafter... and take shares from soft hands...just my feeling about it. Again: the market is not ready for a 1987 type of crash, right now... too many prudent and pessimists investors around. The bubble is not big enough. We need a further increase in oil price (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!)... We need average citizens to feel a real financial squeeze (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!)... We need real inflation or deflation (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!),... We need bank failures (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!)... We need increased unemployement (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!),... We need a $ weakening (and NOT a "smart" talk about it!),... We need much more volatility in the stock market than we have right now. If the DOW drops for 1 week by 500 points, buyers will snap those share real quick. After a few rounds of that, we then will be set up for a real good crash. We are missing many ingredients for a real bear market... We only know it is coming and it IS coming.. but not in March, probably not in April either... We should see 9000 DOW and more (IMHO). Generally, a real correction is always a surprise when it happens because the reason of the drop is not really knows as the market became ultra fragile (which is not the case right now... talk to your neighbors... they are on another planet... they keep contributing to their 401ks!) After reading about these disasters of the past, I became pessimistic and raised cash... to finally realize, after organizing the table we talked about, that we, at this point, are only at risk of facing a quick and short correction, and not at risk of a 1987 crash. There is nothing even close right now, that ressembles the state of the economy a month before the crash of 1929 or the crash of 1987. The situation could be very different in a few months, though. In the meantime, like in 1987, gold should slowly regain strength before the "1998 crash"(IMHO). We are not there yet. Right now, we are in a period of sector rotation. Lastly: volatility has disappeared... we need a big dip (over 200-300 DOW drop in a day) followed by a quick recovery the next day... and then the nerves will be really frayed! Good luck Gaston BTW: Gold is firming up. The climb will be not straight up but we have not retested the low since the double bottom... Things are evolving as planned... I am trying to make some profits and buy some more gold coins... while poor Indonesia experiences more riots... That IS the big worry of mine... a deterioration of some societies far away from our shores in the US... leading to emigrations and big time refugee problems... They are as many citizens in Indonesia as in the USA (just about)... You cannot let a large country go down the tube without having serious worldwide economic consequences. IMHO. ALTA could go through $2 this time. But not certain. Today ALTA gave us a good looking Japanese candle and I will talk about that in my next post.

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (547)	3/26/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: Francois H. Gaston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 749

ALTA and TA: Here you will find the most recent trends for ALTA. members.aol.com ALTA is under accumulation: The NVI (smart investors) is up The PVI (dumb investors) is up The OBV (similar to accumulation/distribution BUT takes, into its formula, the volume of transactions... and I therefore like it better) is up ALTA has rebounded on its lower Bollinger Band The last Japanese candle (hard to see) has a long tail down, a white body (close at the high) All the above are bullish. Now we just need to hit a price of gold of 310 or another 2$ rise for the price oil... for ALTA to go to 2.25 in a flash. Good luck Gaston