To: Big Dog who wrote (16727 ) 3/26/1998 3:33:00 PM From: Carolann Respond to of 95453
Subject: Fractious OPEC Date: Thu, Mar 26, 1998 10:05 EST From: LRiley9900 Message-id: <1998032615055201.KAA21380@ladder01.news.aol.com> OPEC Must Be On Best Behaviour At Oil Pact Baptism By William Maclean LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - OPEC producers will seek to smooth over policy differences that could strangle a price rescue pact at birth when they meet to approve an oil output cut next week, OPEC delegates said on Thursday. The fractious cartel must be on its best behaviour at talks in Vienna on Monday as it ushers in a historic accord to shrink a disastrous glut of crude, they said. Memories of previous price slides triggered by public OPEC rows will be the ghost at the feast as delegates prepare to baptise the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' 1.25 million bpd contribution to the deal with other world oil producers. Last weekend's announcement from Riyadh has helped pull prices up $3.50 a barrel from a nine-year low earlier this month, giving delegates every incentive to protect the accord due to take effect from April 1. International benchmark Brent blend was valued at $15.35 a barrel on Thursday, a $2 gain since the accord came to light. At current prices that makes pledged reductions worth $8 billion a year of extra revenues for the governments of oil-dependent OPEC member countries. But the omens for the accord's survival are mixed. Ripples of discontent are already emerging after Iran and Indonesia said they would cut output from their official OPEC output quotas, not actual production as is assumed under the pact. The issue is crucial. Since these countries in fact can produce only markedly below quotas established last December, their announced "reductions" would have no effect on crude supplies In Vienna, Iran is expected to take issue with the industry consensus about its performance and argue that it is actually producing at quota and should cut from quota. Others could point out that Iranian officials had earlier this year confirmed their country actually produced 200,000 bpd below its 3.94 million bpd quota. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has made clear commitments under the accord were made from current supply levels, rather than official OPEC quotas. "No doubt, this may cause some difficulties. It was clear from the outset that the cuts must be from production not quota," said one delegate from a Middle Eastern country. He said OPEC's best approach would be to gloss over differences in the hope that a harmonious meeting will convince markets of producers' sincerity. Analysts said the agonising impact of months of low prices was still helping to concentrate the minds of producers with more evidence of the pain emerging on Thursday. Foreign contractors in Saudi Arabia said state-oil firm Saudi Aramco had been forced by weak prices to review its spending plans on a series of refinery and oilfield development projects. The agreement, announced in Riyadh and orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela, aims to remove a maximum 1.7 million barrels a day (bpd) from glutted world oil markets. Under the accord, cuts from April 1 until the end of 1998 were expected from all OPEC states bar Iraq plus Mexico, Oman, Norway, Russia, Malaysia and Eygpt, according to OPEC sources. Cuts pledged so far amount to 1.4 million bpd, including 1.25 from OPEC producers. Russia says it will not cut and Norway, the world's second largest exporter after Saudi Arabia, is still mulling a decision. Actual OPEC output excluding Iraq was just short of 27 million bpd in February. OPEC insiders said that sort of number would be used as a benchmark against which to measure the group's aggregate reduction. An agreement on 1.25 million of reductions would leave a 10 member OPEC, excluding Iraq, aiming to squash supply for the rest of the year down to 25.75 million bpd. 07:38 03-26-98