Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21427)	3/26/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul, I was taking the same position...last month was the first in almost 9 that I lost money...$400 on Novell. Other than that I sat out the rally thinking every day we were coming down. Got back in a week and a half or so ago selling TBR and NVLS puts...up nicely so far, ready to bail on a moments notice. Course TBR is a Brazilian stock trading at a P/E of 12 in a market 17% off it's 52 week high, with the promise of great wealth on privatization later this year...shouldn't be affected to drastically if we go down, might even go up. Watching for a Novell position...if it were to hit 8 - 8 1/2, I probably won't hesitate. Otherwise waiting for the big pullback, waiting for the treasure chest of opportunities that usually follows. I still think we stand a chance at 9000 before a major pullback. If ya can't beat 'em, join 'em. sf

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21427)	3/26/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 42771

(Off Topic) Paul, Very insightful comments. Markets, be they stock, real estate, collectibles, whatever, need correcting. The evaporation of liquidity is part of the cycle. It always comes as a surprise to the largest group of investors. Uncorrected markets and economies, like we have now, need major readjustments. The corrections wipe out all the unproductive investments made during boom times when investors and banks "learn" to extrapolate into the future, the current favorable conditions. Loans and investments that would never be made during bad (even normal) economic times suddenly make "sense" when times are good. Wait to see all of the empty stores and office buildings during the next recession. While I'm not 100% in cash, I have a large position. I plan to use that when value appears. Whether that means stock market we'll only know in time. I still think that there is a good chance that we get the blowoff first. Maybe 2000 points in a matter of days. If it doesn't end that way, it may mean just a run of the mill 25% bear market decline. Then the big one after new highs. Wish I knew. One thing I do know is that no one believes it can happen. Even the bears are looking for only a 10% decline. Insiders believe. 144's were filed at staggering levels in March. The February actual transactions have started to show heavy selling. Last weeks numbers were more than double the amount of what is considered to be a normal number of sales vs. buys. Overwhelming bullish sentiment means we're close to something. Whether it's a wave 5 or wave 3 top is the question. Good luck and stay in touch, Dwight

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (21427)	3/26/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: EPS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Thanks Paul. A few words quickly before I leave my office. I have followed your columns here with interest, even when I don't agree with the fine points of your analysis. In particular on your take on Mr Soros: while I certainly think highly of Mr Soros as an investor I would not consider his every move as the best possible play. He makes mistakes sometimes! Take his most recent move on Silver. The jury is still out on his mines which are, I believe (correct me if I am wrong) doing a side movement that should be familiar for us in this thread. In part his role in the nature of things could be similar to what lawyers do: they are a necessary part of the check and balances of nature. He better than others can exploit imbalances and act on this information for profit. I know first hand -we all SI people do- of a very large number of small companies doing all kinds of new technologies ranging from advanced communications/software/chip manufacturing/data compression/financial/etc etc which depend highly on moneys that we investors provide as we chase the highest possible return for our $$$. To believe that there is no correlation would be a serious mistake, I think. So some good comes out of this. I would love to keep going but have to go now. I look forward to more contributions of yours to this thread and wish you well in your investments. Regards Victor