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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: olduvai5 who wrote (3193)	3/26/1998 3:50:00 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 4697

Good to have you and your insights back on the thread, Olduvai5. Things aren't going well, the 5 analysts that follow MEMC expect MEMC to lose ($1.10) this year. So with the stock trading under book, less than 1X revenues, it appears there is plenty of bad news in the stock. Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel? I have been adding to my position at these levels, knowing that a recovery could be a while away. I can wait, because I believe once business picks back up, WFR stock will be in demand and should perform nicely. I have been patient and rewarded with the US banks, the Pharmecuticals in '94 and semi-equip companies in '96-97. I also have recently been buying Mitsubishi Bank of Tokyo as a long term play. But I'm rambling... Do you know of any wafer plants that have come online recently or this year? I think/hope that with capital equipment spending being cut, supply will come back in line with demand later in the year, and semis, especially DRAMS and other memory chips prices will start to move up, hopefully allowing MEMC to charge more for the raw wafers. Do you see a different scenario? Tom

To: olduvai5 who wrote (3193)	3/26/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: hcm1943	Respond to of 4697

Welcome back KM. As most who have followed this thread know I've been out of WFR since 32 with the exception of some covered calls which I will unwind in the next few days. The overcapacity (which for awhile I was reluctant to believe in) is here. Even >1000 dollar PCs are not soaking up the glut. As I posted earlier even mighty INTC is cutting back. IMHO there is no reason to own this for at least the next 6-9 months. The book value is NOT a predictor of the bottom as loses and aging equipment (who do you sell a puller to) can overstate book and give a false sense of security. Better to sell and move on and revisit in 99 than to sit with dead money until next year and maybe longer. Good luck to all.