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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5574)	3/26/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Respond to of 18691

YHOO fast approaching 90 as I have paged through the post on this thread in the last 10 minutes. By the way why is YHOO in the quotes on this thread? Nevermind, it's there.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5574)	3/26/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: White Shoes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Somewhere in there I think we will learn that it's a bad idea to short even the worst Y2K stock around Christmas, New Year's, or Good Friday. Oh well, this too shall pass.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5574)	3/26/1998 3:39:00 PM
From: CMason	Respond to of 18691

Bill (CR) -- Much as I've enjoyed your posts here and on the ZITL thread, I think you may be wrong on TAVA. Whether or not "one company can solve all Y2K embedded system problems," they've convinced a pretty blue-chip client list that they at least better run some pilots to see the extent of the problems. For what it's worth, I've talked with the Y2K people at my firm (a major multinational), and they believe that embedded systems on factory floors may not be Y2K compliant and must be checked; this has been given to all of our vendors as an edict, as well as being used as an internal guidepost. At this point, the issue of Y2K and embedded systems is getting an increasing amount of press attention, several major institutions (e.g., Dreyfus) are taking positions in TAVA, they're anticipating getting NMS listing, and they're continuing to announce new contracts. This is contributing to very strong momentum, making it a poor short at this time (in my view). Longer term, I would agree with you that the company faces some significant issues. First of all, they need to figure out how to make money out of their increased business volume, something that's been fairly difficult for them in the past. Second, they have to convert Y2K customers to some kind of post-Y2K engagements, or else they shrink back to their 1997 size and, presumably, stock valuation. I think this is doable, but it's certainly not a sure thing. Despite this, I think the stock will likely continue to advance, at least through 1998. Ironically, I first bought into TAVA (then TPRO) last fall when it was mentioned disparagingly on Roger's 1997 thread. I tried to see past the fanaticism on the TPRO thread, and thought the company might have some value as a consolidation play. The Y2K runup has been a pleasant surprise, as I have a 100% profit in about six months. Regards, CMason

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (5574)	3/27/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: Quad Sevens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

<<< The whole premise of TAVA is a joke (i.e. one company can solve all Y2K embedded system problems) >>> There you go again. No one is saying that. TAVA longs have been saying--rightly--that no company other than TAVA has tackled the embedded y2k problem in such a significant way. And they've got a big head start, making competition pretty much a nonissue. The gross margins on TAVA's CD ROM methodology are extraordinarily high--around 80-85%. That methodology can be replicated ad infinitum. There is great promise here, though we have yet to see concrete financial results (which is why I sold half my position at 14 yesterday). TAVA can help ANY company with tools and access to their extensive database (via the internet). The number of clients TAVA can help (using its own engineers) with a complete front-end assessment and inventory is of course much smaller; the number TAVA can help with full-blown remediation is of course very small. TAVA currently has pilot projects with 60 different companies. Some of the names are mighty impressive: Coca Cola, Bristol-Meyers, Unilever, GM, ... with more to come. Wade PS: <<< but most of the people who invest in Y2K are naive - both technically and with regards to investing >>> Granted, we have our fair share of these on the TAVA thread.