Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (11202)	3/27/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Jock: I'm in the unusual position of trying to defend TA. Must be a first. Here's the part in your earlier post that I was referring to: ---- The two different (actually three) periods of lows that you are referring to for recent LSI prices really had little to do with LSI. The low in '96 was a culmination of a sell off in techs that saw a mid day reversal, which set the stage for a dramatic run to the upside. Of course, the next time LSI came close to those numbers was last October at the end of the SEA sell off. The third time LSI approached the 18 dollar figure (although not quite finishing there, thus frustrating the mangy bears) the reason was somewhat LSI related. Thus macro lows over a large period of time are often anecdotal and not related to the actual stock . ---- I guess I am disagreeing with the above! There are 3 factors that determine the price of the stock: overall market (economy) sector effects (l/t industry specific growth rates) company effect (how well is the company doing againt competition) Over a long period of time all these effects manifest themselves. So it is very tough for me to believe that "macro lows over a large period of time are often anecdotal". ---- The example about INTC had a lot to do with being in the MPU segment and being dominant there. ---- Will LSI do better than INTC over the next 3 years? Well LSI is in the right place at the right time right now and INTC needs to do some reinvention. BUT never count out Mr. INTC! With those billions in R&D and billions in cash to buy what they want they can become a player and a formidable competitor to LSI quite fast. Besides eventually Merced will come out and they'll do fine. ---- And on a very "fundamental" level in favor of TA I think patterns do repeat. A pattern reflects how people responded to previous price levels. Sheer human nature suggests that they'll learn from that past lesson. Thus if vast numbers of people made a profit buying LSI at 19-20 then the next time we hit 19-20 a vast number of people will again try to buy the stock. This is nothing more than a bet that history will repeat itself - as it often does. So I guess I'm saying the market is not entirely random... (philosophical rant over). ---- Shane.