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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: waverider who wrote (16768)3/26/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: jbe  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
Diamond H -- At first, I thought (I'm paranoid) that your post was not just addressed to me, but aimed at me. After all, I had confessed that I was still hanging on to Tidewater after a 30% drop (I'm hanging on to ESV as well). The thrust of the piece you posted is that it is silly to hang on to a loser.

However, from other posts you have made, I gather that you too are hanging on.

So, the question is: how to tell when a stock is truly a loser?

I have made it a rule to sell any stock that falls by more than 12% from the purchase price. However, most of the ones I sold using that rule are doing better now than the ones I kept!

I made an exception in the case of my oil service stocks because the price decline was due solely to the collapsing price of oil. They were, and remain, good companies, and are in good financial shape. They have not done anything "wrong," and normally, one would expect the price to bounce back sooner or later (preferably sooner).

In other words: as companies, they are not losers. BUT -- and this is the big question -- is the SECTOR a loser? And if so, for how long? I keep on debating with myself about whether to call in the chips or not, whether to go on to fairer pastures or wait here until the cows come home. What is the "realistic" thing to do? Thoughts, anyone?



To: waverider who wrote (16768)3/26/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: drsvelte  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
That was an instructive post. I know, been there, done that last fall. Now listen: The trend is your friend, don't catch falling knives, and you won't lose money by selling early. Hey, I really just made those up! :)

Its easy to feel smug right now. I jumped on PTEN and UTI (and more NE) and feel like the world's greatest analyst -- hey, check my posts -- I said land drillers would do great this week! I've had a good week as have most of you.

I suspect unless we get some real bad news from Norway and OPEC, tomorrow ought to be pretty good. Unless the OPEC boys self-destruct over the weekend (that could happen), Monday ought to be pretty good as well or maybe even reeel good.

Then what? We've had a good rise since a week ago, maybe Monday will be a time to take some $$ off the table. Any thoughts?

I have found that DMI (don't look Paul ;)) has been a real good buy-sell indicator for me. Had I used it last fall consistently, I would've been able to by that Lincoln Navigator in January.

Or if we're not going to trade, but stay long how about the cc route. Steve is our covered call guru, maybe he can pitch in.

As Thean said, this should be interesting. Hope everyone pitches in with some tactics.

BTW, where is "greenman," its his time to take an emerald shine!

Good fortune to all,

drsvelte